What a way to start the week. And while the Rafael Devers' trade doesn't directly play into my MLB player props, its specter looms over the opener between the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners as Logan Gilbert makes his return to the mound.
We're also looking at a pair of RBI props for Aaron Judge and Fernando Tatis Jr. on Monday, June 16.
Best MLB player props today
Judge o0.5 RBI (+160)
Gilbert o6.5 Ks (-120)
Tatis o0.5 RBI (+190)
MLB props for June 16
Aaron Judge Ove 0.5 RBI (+160 at Caesars)
The New York Yankees are coming off arguably their worst series of the season, getting swept by the rival Boston Red Sox while scoring just four runs in the three-game set.
Even Aaron Judge, who is having another historic season at the plate, struggled mightily, striking out nine times in the series.
However, it feels like oddsmakers are overreacting a little too much to this slump, with Judge listed at +160 to drive in a run tonight.
Even in a weekend where he got only one hit, Judge has a .378 batting average and a 1.228 OPS. That OPS is nearly 200 points higher than the next closest player. He’s hit 26 home runs with 60 RBI and cruising toward another American League MVP.
Tonight, he’ll dig in against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Jose Soriano, who hasn’t figured out a way to control his impressive stuff just yet.
Look at his last two starts. Last time out, he dominated the Athletics, limiting them to one run on two hits while striking out 12 over seven innings. Prior to that, he lasted just 3 2/3 innings while giving up seven runs on eight hits.
Overall, Soriano ranks in the 44th percentile in expected ERA and the 34th percentile in expected batting average. And when he’s getting hit, he’s getting hit hard, ranking in the Bottom 23% or worse in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, which plays right into Judge's hands.
Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 strikeouts (-120 at Caesars)
Everyone will be talking about Shohei Ohtani’s return to the mound, but he’s not the only big-name pitcher coming back from a lengthy absence. Seattle Mariners ace Logan Gilbert will make his first start since April 25 thanks to a flexor strain.
The 28-year-old right-hander was dealing in his six starts before his injury, ranking in the 98th percentile in expected ERA and the 91st in expected batting average.
Gilbert struck out 44 batters in 30 1/3 innings pitched, which has him in the 99th percentile in K-rate and I like him to pick right up where he left off when he faces the Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox are making their own headlines after trading Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants on Sunday. After Devers hit a home run to help complete a sweep of the rival New York Yankees.
It will be interesting to see how the Red Sox respond to losing their best hitter, but this is a team that has the third-highest strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitchers this season. Losing one of their best hitters only amplifies this matchup imbalance.
Gilbert threw 72 pitches in his final rehab start at Triple-A Tacoma, where he struck out six batters in five innings, so he shouldn’t have too many limitations for our MLB picks.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+190 at Caesars)
Shohei Ohtani will make his much-anticipated first start in a Los Angeles Dodgers uniform against the San Diego Padres tonight. While the Dodgers’ two-way phenom is an excellent pitcher, it sounds like he’s only going to get one-to-two innings.
That means the bulk of the innings are going to Ben Casparius and the Dodgers bullpen. The 26-year-old right-hander has been solid as the Dodgers' long reliever this season but as a whole, this Dodgers’ bullpen ranks 19th in ERA.
And tonight they’ll have to contend with a red-hot Fernando Tatis Jr.
The Padres’ star slugger is hitting .277 with 13 home runs and 31 RBI this season and was absolutely locked in over the weekend, totaling eight hits, including three doubles and three RBI against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
While Ohtani and the Dodgers will be making noise before the game, Tatis and the Padres will do it with the bats. I like Tatis to drive in another run tonight, and I like it even more when oddsmakers are giving us a price like this.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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