Twins vs White Sox Picks and Predictions: Windy City Conditions Favor Offenses

Two flyball pitchers square off in what looks to be a windy day with gusts pointing toward the outfield stands. While we expect this to favor the Twins more explicitly than the White Sox, the Over is looking like the best play of the day.

Last Updated: Jul 6, 2022 1:26 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox wrap up a three-game series in Chicago on Wednesday afternoon.

The Twins have created a bit of separation in the division over this series after taking each of the first two games. Last night wasn't much of a contest, with the Twins winning 8-2. 

Can the White Sox avoid the sweep? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 6, 2022.

Twins vs White Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The odds opened as a virtual coin flip with both teams were listed at -110 odds and haven't moved much since then. 

The total opened up at 8.5 and has since moved to 8.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Twins vs White Sox predictions

Picks made on 7/6/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Twins vs White Sox game info

Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Wednesday, July 6, 2022
First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports North, NBC Sports Chicago

Twins vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Joe Ryan (6-3, 3.00 ERA): Ryan's four-seam fastball has dominated most opponents with a -12 run value on the year. The most impressive thing about Ryan is that he doesn't create a ton of strikeouts — or even swings and misses — but both his hard-hit rate and exit velocity rank in the Top 30% of baseball. June was a bit of a rocky month for Ryan as he faced some of those teams with significant home run threats and spent time on the IL.  However, he began July with one of his best starts of the season against Baltimore, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run.

Lance Lynn (1-1, 4.50 ERA): Lynn's dominant fastball of 2021 hasn't yet been the same in his four starts this season coming off an injury. It had a run value of -1 compared to -16 a season ago. Lynn is coming off his best outing this season, a six-inning scoreless effort against the San Francisco Giants in which he allowed just three hits. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. White Sox

Twins vs White Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Lance Lynn situation makes this one tricky. We're trying to project if Lynn can return to last season's form without knowing if that's possible. It seems oddsmakers are as hesitant as anyone hence the odds opening up at a virtual coin flip. 

Lynn's biggest issue this season is that teams have created the most solid contact they've ever made against him in his career. Last season, his solid hit rate was 5.5, which is roughly where it sat a year before. This season it has jumped to 7.7. That may not seem like a big deal, but it's huge for a pitcher who already doesn't generate a lot of ground balls. The story today is he's facing the team that makes the second most solid contact in baseball.

I want to focus solely on the starting pitcher matchup here because I believe that's the biggest issue. The Twins' relievers have had some adventures this season, and I want to steer clear of that. While the Minnesota bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of ERA (3.73), it's also been extremely home run prone with the third-highest HR/FB% among relief corps. This can spell disaster when trying to close out a moneyline win.

And even though the White Sox have been extremely disappointing, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, and Luis Robert are all batting above .285 on the season and can string together hits as well as anyone. 

With Joe Ryan's ability to navigate solid lineups and avoid a lot of hard contact and barrels, we like the Twins to at least have the lead through the first five frames, so let's protect against a late-innings implosion in this instance.

Prediction: Twins first five innings moneyline (-112 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

Today brings us two pitchers who have two very similar dispositions. They both boast barrel rates below the league average and flyball rates above it. It may not be comfortable because we may be banking on a few big run innings, but with winds blowing out, creating favorable conditions for home runs, we're backing the Over here today.

There is a reasonably high degree that one of these teams does the heavy lifting on this total today, which could result in yet another blowout regardless of which team comes out on top.

Lynn's struggles with solid contact, even in a relatively small sample, are cause for concern, especially since he's not all that far removed from a significant knee injury. The Twins have been a strong hitting team, ranking in the Top 5 in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, solid contact, and exit velocity. Basically, they excel at anything you can find that speaks to big bats. 

On the flip side, Ryan's most prominent issues have come against teams with high barrel rates, which usually points to their success in hitting home runs. The White Sox are around league average in barrel rate, but that comes with two caveats. The main one is hitters have underperformed compared to their historical numbers. I don't expect that to continue, even if things may not be ideal in the White Sox clubhouse. A matchup with favorable weather conditions provided as good a chance as any to break out.

Prediction: Over 8 (-120 at Circa)

Best bet

I will double down here with the Over as my best bet. 

There's an excellent opportunity to look at players like Byron Buxton or Jake Burger to go deep. I'll probably grab both as they both have good matchups. However, none of these have the edge we have on the total.

My projections see this going over the posted number around 67% of the time. The winds increase about 5%, but I feel good about that side today even without them. Both pitchers have had their issues this season, and it seems like it's more likely than not that one has a blow-up game today. 

PickOver 8 (-120 at Circa)

MLB parlays

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