Rays vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Kluber Can Limit the Damage

The Rays are in Boston for the final of a three-game set between the two rivals. With former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber facing a Red Sox pitcher making his MLB debut, the value sides with Tampa at +105. Read more in our Rays vs. Red Sox betting picks.

Last Updated: Jul 6, 2022 4:26 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Corey Kluber Tampa Bay Rays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox play the rubber match of their three-game set at Fenway Park tonight. The Red Sox took the opener 4-0 before the Rays responded with an 8-4 victory last night, and the finale is sure to be full of intrigue.

Boston is a slight home favorite as it hands the ball to highly touted prospect Brayan Bello who is making his big league debut, while Tampa Bay counters with veteran Corey Kluber. Do the Rays have value as an underdog?

Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Rays vs. Red Sox on Wednesday, July 6. 

Rays vs Red Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Red Sox opened this American League East matchup as -125 home favorites and that’s mostly where the line sits as of Wednesday afternoon. The total hit the board at 9.0 and is now juiced to the Under. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Rays vs Red Sox predictions

Picks made on 7/06/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Rays vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Wednesday, July 6, 2022
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Sun, NESN

Rays vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Corey Kluber (3-5, 3.91 ERA): Kluber saw his streak of eight straight starts of allowing three earned runs or fewer come to an end last time out, as he got tagged for five runs on seven hits in just three innings against the Blue Jays. 

Brayan Bello (MLB debut): Bello will make his Major League debut tonight against the Rays. The 23-year-old right-hander features an electric fastball that can touch 99 miles per hour to go along with a changeup and slider.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Rays are 4-1 in their last five games when listed as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox

Rays vs Red Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

It’s interesting to see Tampa Bay as underdogs for the finale, as the BoSox will hand the ball to rookie Brayan Bello, who will be making his Major League debut. 

As noted, the 23-year-old possesses a great fastball and racked up 114 strikeouts in 85 minor league innings this season. That could play against a Rays team that has the fourth-highest strikeout rate when facing right-handers.

But while the Rays strike out a fair amount, they are a streaky team at the dish, and right now, they’re hot. They rank fifth in batting average, 16th in OPS, and ninth in wRC+ over their last 12 games.

Meanwhile, the Rays counter Bello with veteran Corey Kluber. The former Cy Young award winner has recrafted his game the last few seasons, mixing his cutter, sinker, and curve to get batters to chase and create soft contact. Even though Boston boasts a strong lineup, the Red Sox still rank 23rd in the league when it comes to chase rate.

The Rays also have the edge in bullpens, ranking above the Red Sox in reliever ERA and WHIP. Since you’re not sure what you’re going to get out of Bello in terms of length, this could be an advantage for the Rays later in the game.

The Rays can pull even with the Red Sox for second in the AL East with a win tonight. With the edge in starting pitching, it’s Tampa Bay, not Boston who should be favored in this matchup. Take the value with the underdog.

Prediction: Rays moneyline (+105 at Caesars)

Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the total, the early money is leaning towards the Under and we’ll have to agree as it all starts with Kluber.

The right-hander is clearly not the dominant force he used to be, but he has definitely turned himself into a crafty pitcher who knows how to work the strike zone (he is among the league leaders in walk rate). 

And while Kluber is coming off a rough start, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 15 starts this season, which includes two starts against the juggernaut New York Yankees.

On the other side of the diamond, the Rays’ offense is in a good spot at the moment, but inconsistency has plagued them all season. As a result, they rank 23rd in scoring, plating just 4.15 runs per game. As noted, Bello will have the chance to get some punchouts as well.

Mix in two solid bullpens and this number is just high enough to sneak Under the listed number.

Prediction: Under 9 (-120 at Caesars)

Best bet

Making your MLB debut is a big deal for anyone, but particularly when you are one of the most hyped Red Sox pitching prospects in recent memory. Those lights at Fenway shine very bright, so you know Bello will want to prove he belongs.

However, that can play against young pitchers at times. They can let the emotion of a big night creep into their thoughts and affect their pitches. Bello is a fireballer and if he starts missing the zone a bit with the fastball, professional hitters will have no trouble laying off the breaking stuff. 

We’re betting that Bello gets a bit wild in his debut, resulting in a few free passes. Bet the Over on his walks allowed.

Pick: Brayn Bello Over 1.5 walks allowed (-110 at DraftKings)

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Rays vs. Red Sox picks, you could win $61.75 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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