It should be a great day of action on the diamond with 14 games on the MLB schedule, which means there will be no shortage of baseball betting options in the player prop market.
Today, we find some value in Mike Trout’s pseudo-slump, back Cedric Mullins' streak of cashing his total bases prop, and break down how to back Cristian Javier’s hot streak when he takes the ball against the Royals.
Check out our best MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, July 6.
MLB props for July 6
Picks made on 7/06/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Fishing for Trout
It’s not too often we get plus money on Mike Trout's total bases props, so that's exactly what we're jumping on when the Los Angeles Angels visit the Miami Marlins tonight.
The reason we’re getting this value is that Trout is coming off a pretty terrible month (by his standards) where he is hitting just .225 and is striking out way more than he is walking (41-14 to be precise).
But even with that relative slump, this is Mike Trout we’re talking about. He’s still hitting .273 with a .993 OPS for the season, and maybe facing a pitcher like Trevor Rogers is just what Trout needs to break out of this little funk.
Rogers has regressed a bit following a season where he finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. The lefty is pitching to an expected ERA of 4.84 and is surrendering a .276 expected batting average to opponents. And maybe more importantly for backing Trout here are that Rogers’ strikeouts are way down this season.
Trout is also still crushing lefties. The Angels’ outfielder is hitting .333 with a 1.087 OPS when digging in against southpaws this season.
Additionally, Rogers hasn’t been pitching deep into games too often, averaging just under 4.5 innings per start over his last eight starts. That means plenty of work for a bullpen that ranks 19th in ERA and 24th in opponent batting average.
Look for Trout to take advantage of this matchup and cash the Over on his total bases at a decent betting price.
Mike Trout Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at DraftKings)
Stay hot Cedric
Want to hear something kind of crazy? The Baltimore Orioles are just six games out of a wild card spot heading into tonight’s game against the Texas Rangers.
That’s in a part thanks to a sneaky good top-half of their lineup that includes the likes of Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, and Trey Mancini. Today, our focus is on the former All-Star, Mullins.
The Orioles’ outfielder is having a solid season, hitting .267 with a .733 OPS, but is absolutely locked in at the plate right now. Mullins has hits in 10 of his last 11 starts and has multi-hit games in seven of those, resulting in a .392 batting average and a 1.040 OPS.
Tonight, he gets to dig in against Rangers starter Glenn Otto. The Rangers right-hander was struggling before he hit the COVID IL and it clearly looks like he is still shaking off the rust since his return.
Otto has gotten tagged for 10 runs on 10 hits while striking out two batters, compared to six walks in just six innings over his first two starts back. That has bumped his expected ERA up to 6.65 for the season.
With Mullins totaling 23 extra-base hits against right-handers this season and successfully going Over 1.5 total bases eight times in his last 11 starts, he looks like a solid bet to do so again tonight at plus money.
Cedric Mullins Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at DraftKings)
The Houston Astros are flying high right now, winners of eight in a row and first place in the American League West by 13.5 games. Not only has the hitting been elite, but so too has the starting pitching. Cristian Javier has been a big part of that.
Javier is pitching to a 1.44 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .096 batting average while racking up 39 punchouts in 25 innings over his last four starts. That stretch has lowered his expected ERA to 2.47 and his opponent's expected batting average sits at just .179. Basically, the guy looks unhittable at times.
Tonight, he’ll toe the rubber against the Kansas City Royals who have lost seven of their last 10, and unlike the Astros, nothing seems to be going the Royals' way at the moment. Kansas City ranks 17th in batting average, 24th in OPS, and 26th in scoring when facing right-handed pitching this season.
Meanwhile, the Royals counter Javier with Brad Keller. The right-hander has been mediocre at best this season, pitching to a 4.24 expected ERA and giving up a .273 expected batting average to opponents. He could be in trouble against an Astros lineup that ranks third in OPS versus righties.
The Astros should be able to do enough damage against Keller to help Javier earn his fourth consecutive win.
Cristian Javier Prop: To record a win - Yes (+110 at DraftKings)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $82.61 on a $10 bet?
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