A divisional battle takes place tonight as the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers wrap up their series in primetime.
In my Sunday Night Baseball props and MLB picks for June 22, I see considerable value in a couple of pitchers tonight.
Twins vs Tigers Sunday Night Baseball props
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Paddack o4.5 strikeouts (+140) -
Torkelson to hit a home run (+375) - Skubal o7.5 strikeouts (-143)
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Twins vs Tigers props for Sunday Night Baseball
Chris Paddack Over 4.5 strikeouts (+140 at Caesars)
Chris Paddack is an enigma. There's the ugly side of his game, like a whiff rate and strikeout rate in the Bottom 20 percentile of baseball, which have been primarily responsible for an ERA over 4.00. However, there's also an elite part of his game, like a fastball run value in the 90th percentile of baseball and a chase rate that's very close to that.
A strikeout rate that hangs in that area is not usually an arm you'd target to get strikeouts, but the circumstances for tonight are special. Let's discuss why and how I've observed a roughly 3% edge on this number, according to my strikeout model.
That chase rate is pretty significant to this handicap. Over the season, the Detroit Tigers haven't chased much at all (27.3%), but over the last month, that number has increased to 29.8, which would place them among the fourth-highest rates in the majors. And that's just one of several elements that make this an appealing spot.
Another? Paddack leans heavily on a mid-90s four-seamer and a developing changeup that's generating a 28% whiff rate. Detroit's offense has struggled mightily against right-handed changeups this season, posting below-league-average run values and chase rates.
This feels like a spot where Paddack is undervalued. He hasn't had a good season, but with a pitcher-friendly umpire on the mound and Paddack projected to get close to 100 pitches, I'm willing to buy low on him, creating a good amount of swings-and-misses tonight with a very reasonable strikeout number.
Spencer Torkelson to hit a home run (+375 at Caesars)
A pitch that's given Paddack some trouble? The fastball, and that's the story of this bet.
Opponents are hitting .253 on the heater while slugging .349. Those numbers by themselves aren't overly terrible. Still, when you surround them with an expected batting average that's about 30 percentage points higher along with an expected slugging percentage that's much higher, you start to get a little concerned.
Nobody hits high-velocity stuff harder than Spencer Torkelson on the Tigers roster. At least nobody that's seen a qualified amount of them this season. Tork will come into this game with a hard-hit rate of 59% against the fastball on just over 300 pitches — an elite mark.
He should see a good amount tonight from Paddack, as the fastball makes up almost 50% of his pitching arsenal. Combining that with Paddack's aforementioned barrel rate issues makes this enticing at +375 already.
However, there's more. Temperatures will be near 90 degrees by the time the first pitch is thrown, and Comerica Park has a few features that should be conducive to increased offense in a climate like that, such as the fourth-lowest average fence height in the majors and the ninth-highest elevation among all parks. All of these are good for the long ball.
Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 strikeouts (-143 at Caesars)
It should be business as usual for the Cy Young frontrunner this evening, and although the number is juiced at -143 on his strikeouts, there's still value given our projection of -158.
There's not much I'm going to tell you that you don't already know about Tarik Skubal. The stuff is just plain filthy. He'll come into this game elite in pretty much every department you can imagine, and that includes chase, whiff, and strikeout rates, which are in the 90th percentile of baseball. His best pitch is the changeup.
Coming into this matchup, opponents are hitting just .162 against it, resulting in a whiff rate of nearly 50%. That's an issue for a Minnesota Twins roster that has up to five players starting today who have an above-average whiff rate against the changeup on the season.
That doesn't even mention what Minnesota has done against Southpaws. They'll arrive at this one with the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the majors when facing them at just a click below 25%. All signs point to Skubal cooking tonight.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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