Both the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs have been putting crooked numbers on the board in bunches ahead of Monday’s series opener at Wrigley Field, and with a pair of struggling starters toeing the rubber for the two clubs, I'm expecting more of the same tonight.
Here are my best Twins vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for Monday’s interleague bout.
Twins vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs have woken up at the plate with 34 runs across their past five games, and starter Kyle Hendricks has also surrendered 12 runs over his past three starts since the All-Star break. Hendricks is sporting a 7.61 ERA as a starter while allowing opposing hitters to tee him up for a .372 wOBA.
Add Hendricks' sporting negative pitch values on his three most frequent offerings, per FanGraphs, and the veteran righty’s ballooned numbers line up. His hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, launch angle, and exit velocity are also all up compared to last year’s marks.
Of course, the Minnesota Twins are also raking against right-handed hurlers with a fourth-ranked .329 wOBA, and they’ve put 37 runs on the board during their active four-game winning streak.
Minny starter David Festa is also inexperienced and inconsistent. He’s making just his fourth start in the bigs, and while his 3.87 xFIP is promising, he’s still allowed 15 earned runs across just 19 1/3 innings. His 4.06 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with Triple-A St. Paul aren’t confidence-inducing marks, either.
One reason we’re landing this decreased total is because the wind is forecasted to be blowing in at Wrigley Field on Monday night. Still, both offenses are coming in hot, and neither starting pitcher has been sharp.
Twins vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
David Festa Over 4.5 strikeouts
Michael Busch Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Despite the noted Festa shortcomings, he has racked up 19 strikeouts across 14 1/3 innings over his past three appearances for a high-end 11.93 K/9 and 30.6 K%. His pitch values also check out, and as noted, Festa probably has good fortune ahead.
Turning to Michael Bucsh, the Chicago rookie is coming off an excellent three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals and has been solid against right-handed pitchers this season. Busch went 4-for-11 with two runs, two homers, and four RBI against the Cards over the weekend, and he sports a .350 wOBA and .202 ISO against righties for the campaign.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Cubs odds
Twins vs Cubs live odds
Twins vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 | Chicago +1.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -113 | Chicago +105
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Twins vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn’t been meaningful movement to this moneyline since shops opened with the Twins a short road favorite. The odds haven’t even moved at bet365 as of Monday morning.
- It’s a similar story with the total. Both Pinnacle and bet365 haven’t moved off the opening 8 offering, and neither shop has adjusted the odds significantly to either the Over or Under.
- The forecasted wind blowing in has definitely kept this total in check, but I still think we’re landing a fair number and expect both teams to put runs on the board.
Twins vs Cubs trend
The total has gone Over in four of the past five Chicago games and three of the last four Minnesota contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Cubs.
Twins vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Monday, 8-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, MARQ |
| Twins starting pitcher: | David Festa (1-2, 6.98 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Kyle Hendricks (3-9, 6.86 ERA) |
Twins vs Cubs latest injuries
Twins vs Cubs weather
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