The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of the ALDS on Monday afternoon at Progressive Field. MLB odds have Detroit as a -130 favorite, while the total sits at 6.5.
My Tigers vs. Guardians prediction expects Cleveland SP Matthew Boyd to rack up the strikeouts against his old team.
Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, October 7.
Tigers vs Guardians prediction
Who will win Tigers vs Guardians Game 2?
I am optimistic about the Detroit Tigers evening up this series on Monday afternoon. However, I don’t want to lay -130 in what I expect to be more of a coin-flip game that lacks a lot of scoring, which is why I am instead looking at the prop market.
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My Tigers vs Guardians best bet
Pick
Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 strikeouts (-152 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Most of the attention in Monday’s game will be on Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, and with good reason — he is the best pitcher in baseball and will win the AL Cy Young award.
However, I want to target Cleveland Guardians left-hander Matthew Boyd. He’s only thrown eight times this season, but he has been tremendous.
Boyd boasts a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, and his underlying metrics are equally strong. If he officially qualified, the southpaw would rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Specifically, we are going to target Boyd in the prop market as he also ranks toward the top of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has surpassed in each of his past five starts.
I expect him to continue this dominance against his former club, a lineup that ranked 24th in the league this season in strikeouts per game.
Tigers vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 strikeouts
Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 strikeouts
Under 6.5
I gave Skubal his flowers earlier, and I also want to back him in the prop market. On top of everything else, the southpaw can also accumulate punchouts at a high clip as he ranks in the 90th percentile in whiff rate and 91st percentile in strikeout rate.
If we are backing both starting pitchers to put together strong performances, then a highly correlated outcome would be for this game to end in a low-scoring affair. That is certainly possible, given that both lineups rank in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Tigers vs Guardians odds
Tigers vs Guardians live odds
Tigers vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Detroit -122 | Cleveland +113
- Run line: Detroit -1.5 | Cleveland +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Tigers vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Detroit opened as a -130 favorite and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- I project this line to widen, given that the market typically favors Skubal.
- The total opened at 6.5 and also remains at that number.
- There are already numerous totals at six out there, so I would get in on 6.5 sooner rather than later if you like the Under.
Tigers vs Guardians trend
Boyd has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians.
Tigers vs Guardians Game 2 info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Monday, 10-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Tarik Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Matthew Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) |
Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries
Tigers vs Guardians weather
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