Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Picks & Odds for AL Wild Card Game 3 — Thursday, October 2

Our Tigers vs. Guardians predictions expect Cleveland's offense to make Jack Flaherty's life hell in this winner-take-all Game 3.

Todd Cordell - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Todd Cordell • Betting Analyst
Oct 2, 2025 • 10:12 ET • 4 min read

MLB

Oct 02 • 3:08 PM ET
CLE
58 %
DET
42 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Kyle Manzardo o0.5  Total RBIs (+165) Kyle Manzardo o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
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Kyle Manzardo Cleveland Guardians MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Kyle Manzardo runs to first after a base hit against the Tigers.

The Cleveland Guardians bounced back in a big way on Wednesday, picking up a blowout victory over the Detroit Tigers to even the series.

My Tigers vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks see the home side picking up where they left off, with Kyle Manzardo playing a prominent role at the dish. 

Tigers vs Guardians Game 3 predictions

Who will win Tigers vs Guardians Game 3

Jack Flaherty has not pitched his best over the past couple of months, sporting a 5.36 ERA since August 5. Meanwhile, this Tigers bullpen sits 23rd in FIP since September 1. The Guardians are a real threat to score a few here, making it difficult for a laboring Tigers offense to keep up.

Tigers vs Guardians best bet

Kyle Manzardo Over 0.5 RBI (+165)

Jack Flaherty ran into some trouble down the stretch, allowing three runs or more in five of his past nine starts, including his last against the Cleveland Guardians.

Most of the damage Flaherty allowed came against left-handed bats. He had a more difficult time with them all year long, giving up more baserunners, more power, and posting a lower strikeout rate.

Kyle Manzardo is a lefty who could cause Flaherty and the Detroit Tigers some problems. Not only do the splits work in Manzardo’s favor, but he profiles well against what Flaherty throws.

Manzardo is a power threat against the fastball, which is Flaherty’s most-used pitch. He has also hit .300 or better against the slider and knuckle curve. Those are the only other pitches Flaherty throws more than 5% of the time vs. left-handed bats.

Steven Kwan is one of the best contact hitters in the sport, while Jose Ramirez is an OBP machine. There should be some traffic on the basepaths and opportunities for Manzardo to cash runners in.

Tigers vs Guardians Game 3 same-game parlay (SGP)

Kwan hit .282 against right-handed pitching in the regular season and drew 40 walks to boot. With Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo behind him, he’s a real threat to score any time he gets on base.

The Tigers have scored just one earned run through two games in this series. If the Guardians’ top bats can do some damage, it should be enough to get another win.

Tigers vs Guardians SGP

  • Kyle Manzardo Over 0.5 RBI
  • Steven Kwan Over 0.5 runs
  • Guardians moneyline

Tigers vs Guardians home run pick for Game 3

Kyle Manzardo (+475)

Manzardo possesses real power against pitchers of both handedness, so he’s a threat no matter who's on the mound. Starter Jack Flaherty heavily features the two pitches Manzardo has the lowest whiff rate against, giving him a better chance of making good contact.

Tigers vs Guardians Game 3 odds

  • Moneyline: Detroit -105 | Cleveland -115
  • Run line: Detroit -1.5 (+165) | Cleveland +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7

Tigers vs Guardians trend

Kyle Manzardo has driven in a run in 40% of his home games this season and 54% of home victories. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians.

How to watch Tigers vs Guardians and Game 3 info

Location Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date Thursday, July 28, 2025
First pitch 3:08 p.m. ET
TV ABC
Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty
(8-15, 4.64 ERA)
Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi
(7-7, 4.30 ERA)

Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries

Tigers vs Guardians weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell - Covers
Betting Analyst

Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.

When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.

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