It's a tough day to be a pitcher, with tons of wind, heavy workloads, and bad matchups. It's a bump to offensive MLB player props, and I'm looking to fade some arms today.
Anthony Kay's leash is always a question, and getting to five punchouts is tough on 85 pitches. Luis Castillo's stuff has been declining for years, and a matchup with the Dodgers isn't helping his comeback. Finally, the Twins are overusing Taj Bradley, and he's coming off a 109-pitch outing in his last start.
These are my favorite pitcher strikeout and pitcher props for Tuesday, July 28.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Anthony Kay |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | +100 |
 Luis Castillo |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | +103 |
 Taj Bradley |
Under 17.5 outs | +130 |
Strikeout prop: Anthony Kay Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
Anthony Kay looks like he might be slowing down in his first MLB season since 2023. His last five outings have lasted 79, 83, 92, 48, and 73 pitches, and over that stretch, he's cleared this number just once with 17 strikeouts across 22 innings.
Kay likely needs to reach 18 outs to get to five punchouts, and that is something he's done only once over his last 10 starts. The matchup against the New York Yankees always brings some risk, as New York has been a Top-3 strikeout offense all season, but 16-mph winds blowing out to right field aren't going to help Kay stay on the mound.
The Yankees also chased him after just four innings in their last meeting in June, when Kay finished with only two strikeouts. The stuff can play, but the inconsistency and leash remain the biggest concerns.
Covers projections have Kay at 4.31 strikeouts, making the break-even price around -130.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, YES
Strikeout prop: Luis Castillo Under 4.5 strikeouts (+103)
Luis Castillo is coming off a 101-pitch game where he went seven innings but still managed only three strikeouts. It was the sixth straight start for the right-hander to go Under this total. His K% is down from last year, marking the third straight season his K% has dropped. His four-seam velocity has also been on the decline since 2022.
A road date, where his K/9 numbers are worse since 2024, vs. a legit Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, is not a great spot to expect Castillo to get back to his glory years, and why the projections are showing this fair price of -115/-120.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Los Angeles, Mariners.TV
Pitcher outs prop: Taj Bradley Under 17.5 outs (+130)
The Minnesota Twins starter is coming off a 109-pitch outing in his last start and sits just 30 innings away from his career high. The Kansas City Royals offense is much weaker without Bobby Witt, but the workload could still impact Taj Bradley's efficiency today.
Minnesota is one of the warmer parks on the slate with temperatures around 88 degrees at first pitch, which only adds to the fatigue angle. Bradley might not get hit hard, but longer innings could become an issue, especially for a pitcher who already struggles with command, with 46 walks over 114 innings.
This is a big price for a pitcher coming off a massive workload with career highs approaching. With Minnesota sitting just a game out of the Wild Card race, the Twins will need to balance winning now with managing Bradley's usage.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, Royals.TV
- Prop picks: 5-6, -1.23 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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