The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees close out a three-game set in the Bronx with a matinee matchup at Yankee Stadium and sportsbooks are prepared for fireworks.
Oddsmakers have set the total for the finale at 10 with the Royals’ Brad Keller set to toe the rubber against the Yankees’ Jameson Taillon. Can the starters do enough to and keep the Under in play?
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Royals vs. Yankees on Thursday, June 24, with first pitch scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET.
Royals vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Thursday, June 24, 2021
• Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, Bally Sports Kansas City
Royals vs Yankees odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonNew York landed on FanDuel's odds board as a -190 favorite Wednesday evening, peaked at -205 this morning and is -200 at noon ET. It's practically all Yankees action on the moneyline, at 81 percent of bets and 95 percent of cash. The total has been volatile, moving from 10 to 9.5 to 9, rising back to 10 and returning to 9, with 61 percent of bets/76 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRoyals vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Brad Keller (6-7, 6.34 ERA): Keller was in a groove, going eight starts in a row without giving up more than three runs, but is now mired in a three-game slump where he has pitched to a 9.39 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP.
Jameson Taillon (1-4, 5.59 ERA): Taillon bounced back from his worst start of the season by holding the A’s to two runs on four hits over 4 2-3 innings last time out. But that has been a running theme for Taillon this season as he averages just 4.5 innings per start.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Royals: Salvador Perez C (Questionable), Adalberto Mondesi SS (Out), Andrew Benintendi LF (Out), Ronald Bolanos RP (Out), Jesse Hahn RP (Out).
Yankees: Gio Urshela 3B (Questionable), Zac Britton RP (Questionable), Darren O'Day RP (Out), Justin Wilson RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Jameson Taillon's last five starts when facing a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Yankees.
Moneyline pick
The Yankees have been scoring with a little more consistency in June, but they are still giving up more runs than they are plating, thanks to a starting rotation that has a 4.47 ERA when a guy named Gerrit Cole isn’t included. And if the Yanks want to challenge the Red Sox and Rays, they’ll need to get more out of guys like Jameson Taillon.
But that has been a struggle at this point. The right-hander has a 5.59 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP thanks to the fact that he is finding too much of the plate with his fastball and curveball. As a result, Taillon is getting barreled up a lot and getting hit hard.
He faces a Royals team that may not feature a lot of power, but they are a patient bunch, ranking 10th in batting average and strike out the second-fewest in baseball.
K.C. counters Taillon with a slumping Brad Keller. While the right-hander has been roughed up lately, he was reliable over an eight-game stretch where he allowed three earned runs or fewer.
As mentioned, Taillon doesn’t pitch long into games, and although the Yanks have a great bullpen, he puts a lot of pressure on them and the Yankees are just 4-9 in his starts this season. This price is good enough to take a shot on the Royals.
PREDICTION: Royals (+165)
Over/Under pick
While it’s worth taking a shot on the Royals as big underdogs, the total looks like the best bet to make in this game. Even with a high number of 10, it might not be high enough for this matchup. We’ve already talked about the struggles of both starters, but here’s a little more.
Keller has surrendered five or more runs in each of his last three starts and now faces a Yankees lineup that ranks in the Top 10 in home runs and has upped their scoring to 4.67 runs per game in the month of June. Keller will then have to hand the ball at some point to a bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA and WHIP.
On the other side, Taillon allows opponents to hit .265 off him this season and you could make the argument that outside home runs, the Royals have a more consistent offense than the Yankees and have scored over 4.5 runs per game over their last six games.
This game feels like a great bet to go Over.
PREDICTION: Over 10 (-110)
Royals vs Yankees betting card
- Royals (+165)
- Over (-110)
Picks made on 6/23/2021 at 11:30 p.m. ET
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