The Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros wrap up a three-game set after splitting the first two at Daikin Park on Wednesday, May 14.
My top MLB picks and Royals vs. Astros predictions expect another low-scoring contest after Houston took Game 2 with 2-1 win.
Royals vs Astros prediction
My Royals vs Astros best bet: Under 8 (-102 at DraftKings)
Both the Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros have trended to their respective team total Unders this season, and while today's pitching matchup doesn’t jump off the page, I still expect both lineups to struggle to generate offense.
To start, the Royals have averaged just 3.43 runs per game, and they rank 27th in wOBA and 30th in ISO against left-handed hurlers. Astros southpaw Colton Gordon is making his big-league debut, and he'll keep the Kansas City bats off balance after posting a respectable 2.55 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .394 xFIP, and 5.38 K/BB ratio at Triple-A.
Houston also sends a righty-heavy lineup to the dish, and Royals starter Michael Lorenzen has fared better against righties to start the year and held them to a .228 batting average and .321 wOBA.
Of course, Lorenzen should also benefit with Astros star Yordan Alvarez expected to miss an 11th consecutive game while on the IL with a hand injury.
While the Astros have averaged five runs per game without Alvarez, they’ve also benefited from an unsustainably high .344 BABIP during the 10-game stretch and still rank 19th in wOBA and 27th in ISO against right-handed hurlers for the campaign.
Finally, following Tuesday’s 2-1 pitcher’s duel, both the Royals and Astros have rested bullpens and respectively rank fifth and second in reliever ERA.
Royals vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Colton Gordon Over 3.5 strikeouts
Jonathan India Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Gordon has fanned four or more batters in three consecutive Triple-A starts and six of eight for the campaign. He'll pitch deep enough into this game to hit the Over.
His 9.14 K/9 and 25.3 K% are solid marks and, as highlighted, he doesn’t issue many free passes with a 4.7 BB%.
Turning to Royals leadoff man Jonathan India, he’s running hot at the dish with a .392 wOBA and .888 OPS across his past 10 contests and hit the Over in this market in seven of the 10. I also value his rock-solid .364 wOBA and .819 OPS over the past two years against southpaws.
Royals vs Astros odds
Royals vs Astros live odds
Royals vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +120 | Houston -140
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-180) | Houston -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Royals vs Astros trend
The Kansas City Royals have hit the team total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+17.10 Units / 40% ROI), and the Houston Astros have hit the team total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.90 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Astros.
How to watch Royals vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-14-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNKC, SCHN |
| Royals starting pitcher | Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.57 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Colton Gordon (Triple-A: 4-0, 2.55 ERA) |
Royals vs Astros latest injuries
Royals vs Astros weather
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