The Boston Red Sox go for the sweep against the Kansas City Royals as Connelly Early and Michael Wacha take the mound for today's finale.
Wacha has thrown three consecutive quality starts, and I like his chances of leading the home team back into the victory column with my Red Sox vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, May 20.
Who will win Red Sox vs Royals today: Royals moneyline (-118)
Kansas City Royals right-hander Michael Wacha has turned back the clock in his age-34 season, posting a 2.83 ERA. The effectiveness should continue against a projected Boston Red Sox lineup he’s found great success against in prior meetings, limiting them to a .563 OPS.
Although the Red Sox took the first two games of the series, it’s not exactly like this team is red hot. They’ve plated more than three runs just once in their last 10 games.
Boston is 15-22 against right-handed starting pitchers and has already wrapped up a series win, so I’ll fade them in a letdown spot.
COVERS INTEL: Connelly Early’s 3.21 ERA is undercut by his seventh-percentile barrel rate. That’s playing with fire against a Kansas City lineup that ranks third in hard-hit rate this month.
Red Sox vs Royals Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-110)
Boston ranks 22nd in wRC+ (85) against right-handed pitching this month, while Kansas City has been even worse (29th with a 65 wRC+) against southpaws.
With winds up to 9 mph blowing in toward home plate, the stage is set for a low-scoring contest.
Wacha’s microscopic 0.99 WHIP will play against a Boston lineup with a 7.1% BB rate (26th). Early (102 Stuff+) — and the bullpen behind him (1.96 ERA this month) — should keep Kansas City’s lineup in check enough to keep the total low.
Boston is 1-11 O/U in its last 12 games; if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
- ML/RL bets: 14-14, -4.4 units
- Over/Under bets: 21-8, +12.64 units
Red Sox vs Royals odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox +102 | Royals -123
- Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (+163) | Royals +1.5 (-199)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-102) | Under 8 (-118)
Red Sox vs Royals trend
The Royals have cashed the Under in seven of Michael Wacha’s nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Royals.
How to watch Red Sox vs Royals and game info
| Location | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Wednesday, May 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, Royals.TV |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Connelly Early (3-2, 3.21 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher | Michael Wacha (4-2, 2.83 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Royals latest injuries
Red Sox vs Royals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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