Red Sox vs Rays Picks and Predictions: Tampa Completes Sweep Over Boston

The Tampa Bay Rays will be looking for a four-game sweep tonight at Tropicana Field vs. the Boston Red Sox and do so as -130 favorites.

Tampa will face rookie Kutter Crawford and counter with Drew Rasmussen. Boston has dropped five of its last 15 games and is only two games out of last place in the AL East at 47-42.

Can the home side get the sweep as short favorites and separate itself from the bottom of the division? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Rays. 

Red Sox vs Rays odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel on July 14, 2022.

Tampa opened as -130 favorites with a total of 7.5 that leans to the Over. The Rays closed as -200 favorites yesterday but were underdogs in the first two games of the series. 

Be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Red Sox vs Rays predictions

• Prediction: Rays ML (-130)
• Prediction: Over 7.5 (-115)
• Best bet: Aranda Under 0.5 hits (+140)

Picks made on 7/14/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Red Sox vs Rays game info

• Location: Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay, FL
• Date: Thursday, July 14, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, Bally Sports Sun

Red Sox vs Rays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kutter Crawford (2-2, 4.50 ERA): Boston will send its rookie right-hander to the mound as Crawford will be making his third start this year. He has been up and down from Triple-A and spent more time in the Boston bullpen than in the rotation. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who has command issues (15 BB in 30 innings) and sits in the bottom 10% in barrel percentage. His pitch count is projected at 87 by THE BAT X. 

Drew Rasmussen (5-3, 3.11 ERA): Rasmussen will face an offense that has recorded three runs over its last two games. The right-hander uses his offspeed pitches over 60% of the time and won’t see the order a third time. He’ll hand things over to a bullpen that has been lights out of late. Tampa is 9-5 straight up in games that Rasmussen starts.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Red Sox are 4-12 straight up in their last 16 games in Tampa. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Rays

Red Sox vs Rays picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Rays have taken the first three games of this series and have done so in a different fashion. They got another spectacular start from Shane McClanahan last night, Corey Kluber outdueled Chris Sale on Tuesday, and the bullpen outlasted the Sox on Monday. The last result is of interest today as Tampa will need more outs from the pen as Drew Rasmussen likely won’t see the Boston order a third time. This game will be settled in the later innings.

The BoSox bullpen will also see plenty of action with rookie Kutter Crawford starting. The right-hander could touch 90 pitches, but his control has been spotty and because of it, he hasn’t been getting deep. He also records the majority of his outs in the air and has a very low ground-ball rate.

Crawford did blank the Rays in a start two weeks ago, but he still recorded just 16 outs and now the Tampa offense will have plenty of information to make adjustments. 

Tampa Bay tagged the Boston pen for five runs in the opener of the series, added two more on Tuesday, and scored another run on lefty Jake Diekman last night. It has shown it can hit this pen and there are enough hot sticks in this lineup (Yandy Diaz is 24-for-53 and Harold Ramirez is 24-for-60 over their last 15 games) to match the offensive strengths of the Red Sox.

This game will be won or lost in the late innings as I think both lineups could have success against the starters, but Boston’s relievers have been saddled with losses in two of the series’ three games while the Tampa pen is on its best stretch of the season. 

Tampa Bay was an underdog in the first two games of the series, but this -130 price isn't too short and is more a representation of a starting pitching and bullpen advantage for the home side. No team in the American League has a worse record over the last 15 games than the Red Sox at 5-10 SU.

Prediction: Rays moneyline (-130 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Both of these teams have been profitable to the Under on the season, but with some average starting pitching and two Top-10 offenses over the last month, the Over 7.5 is very tempting.

We do know that Rasmussen won’t see the Sox batters a third time through the order, and even in his last start where he went four scoreless, the game still finished with nine total runs vs. the Reds. He gives up hard contact and sits in the bottom 20% in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. The Over has hit in five of his last six starts.

Tampa should be able to generate a lot of traffic against Crawford despite failing to do so two weeks ago. He’s walked 15 batters and allowed five homers over 30 innings, and his low ground-ball rate could cause some crooked runs if and when he gives up some free passes.

The Sox have been dipping into their affiliates for pitchers lately and the cupboards aren’t full with talent as Kutter is also a 16th-round pick. Crawford also has an ERA north of 5.00 in Triple-A over the last two years. 

Defensively, the Red Sox could also help out with this low total. The visitors have three errors already in the series and Tampa has totaled five unearned runs so far. 

Red Sox fans, please look away ????

(via @RaysBaseball)pic.twitter.com/5qCoMxvzE1

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 13, 2022

The top of the Tampa order is red-hot despite not many people knowing about it. Diaz and Ramirez have been crushing pitches and are hitting over .400 across the last 15 games, The Rays also have some of the best platoon bats in baseball, and if Boston needs to use four or five pitchers tonight, Kevin Cash will have a matchup advantage.

This Red Sox lineup is also not a bad unit to hitch my wagon to. The first four batters in the lineup are hitting over .300, and although the bottom-third is weak, this is still the No. 2 hitting team in baseball in average. 

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-115 at bet365)

Best bet

Rookie Jonathan Aranda might be hitting .308, but he has just 13 total at-bats. He’s a left-handed bat who has a high-pitch hit risk in a game that could see plenty of relief pitching. In the six games he’s played, he’s seen a full array of at-bats just twice. 

If he doesn’t start, that would be great here as he would likely get a pinch-hit at-bat later in the game. When we’re getting Under 0.5 hits for +140 and could potentially have a player with one or even two plate appearances, that’s a huge advantage.

THE BAT X has Aranda as a 45% pinch-hit risk and 2.56 plate appearances. He is a good hitter (over .300 across the last two seasons in the minors), but the pinch-hit risk is real and Cash loves to move the pieces in the lineup to get matchup advantages. As a left-handed hitter, there is a great chance he sees two at-bats.

Jonathan Aranda prop pick: Under 0.5 hits (+140 at bet365)

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