Red Sox vs Rays Picks and Predictions: Tampa ML An Incredible Value Considering Rays Home Dominance

The Red Sox are fighting for their playoff lives, but head to their personal house of horrors in visiting the Rays at the Trop. Considering Tampa has won 37 of its last 53 at home, including five straight against Boston, the Rays ML is an incredible value.

Last Updated: Aug 30, 2021 9:17 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Wander Franco Tampa Bay Rays MLB
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The Boston Red Sox head to Florida to begin a pivotal four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday.

The BoSox are 2.5 games ahead of Oakland for the final Wild Card spot in the American League and every game matters with just over a month left in the regular season. MLB betting lines have the AL-East leading Rays installed as -135 favorites for Monday night with the Over/Under set at 8.5.

Here are our best free Red Sox vs. Rays free picks and predictions for Monday, August 30, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. 

Red Sox vs Rays game info

Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Date: Monday, August 30, 2021
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Red Sox vs Rays odds

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Red Sox vs Rays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Nick Pivetta (9-6, 4.57 ERA): Pivetta has been a reliable member of Boston's rotation this season, making 25 starts and posting a 1.31 WHIP while holding opponents to a batting average of .232. That said, he has struggled in his last two starts, surrendering a total of eight runs across 5 1-3 innings.

Luis Patino (3-3, 4.53 ERA): Patino was a key return for the Rays when they traded away Blake Snell during the offseason. The 21-year-old has pitched to a 1.28 WHIP with an OBA of .228 in 51 2-3 innings this season. In his last outing, he allowed five hits and two earned runs in six innings against the White Sox. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Red Sox: Kike Hernandez 2B (Out), Christian Arroyo 3B (Out).
Rays: Ji-Man Choi 1B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Rays are 72-25 in their last 97 games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Rays.

Moneyline pick

The Tampa Bay Rays are on a seven-game winning streak and are six games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East standings with an 82-48 record. The Red Sox have won five of their last seven and are in third place in the division with a 75-57 mark.

The Rays are a modest 11th in the majors with an OPS of .741 but they get the most out of their hits and lead the MLB with 5.35 runs per game. The Red Sox are fourth in the majors with 5.07 runs per game while ranking third in OPS at .772.

When it comes to the starters for this contest, the Red Sox will send veteran Nick Pivetta to the mound while the Rays are giving the ball to young Luis Patino. Both have been solid, if unspectacular, this season and have very similar numbers in terms of ERA (Patino at 4.53 and Pivetta at 4.57) and expected ERA (Patino with a 4.08 and Pivetta with a 3.97).

That said, Pivetta has looked shaky lately and has allowed four earned runs in five of his last eight starts, pitching to a 5.73 ERA over that span. Although he had a couple of gems against the Rays earlier this season, he didn't look that impressive when he faced off against them at the beginning of the month, surrendering three runs over 4 2-3 innings. 

The Red Sox have really struggled on the road lately, going 4-12 in their previous 16 away contests. They've also been getting owned in the head-to-head series against Tampa Bay, losing seven of the last eight games — including five straight at Tropicana Field. With the Rays 37-16 in their last 53 games at home, back them tonight. 

PREDICTION: Tampa Bay (-135)

Over/Under pick

We mentioned Pivetta's recent struggles on the mound but Patino isn't the most reliable starter either. Both teams have also been the hottest-hitting squads in the majors lately.

The Red Sox lead the majors with an OPS of .823 while plating 5.42 runs per game during the month of August. During that same span, the Rays have an OPS of .811 while leading the majors with 6.72 runs per game. 

Recent trends also point strongly towards the Over with the Rays going 6-0-1 O/U in their last seven games at home and the BoSox going above the total in six of their previous eight contests overall. With the Over also going a sizzling 21-6-2 in the last 29 meetings between these division foes, back it again tonight. 

PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-120)

Red Sox vs Rays betting card

  • Tampa Bay ML (-135)
  • Over 8.5 (-120)

Picks made on 8/30/2021 at 9:45 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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