The Aaron Judge-less New York Yankees welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to the Bronx tonight for the beginning of a four-game American League East series.
My Rays vs. Yankees predictions will focus on Drew Rasmussen, who is having another impressive campaign for Tampa. However, I'll be fading him in the strikeout market.
Read on for more in my MLB picks for Monday, July 28.
Rays vs Yankees prediction
My Rays vs Yankees best bet: Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100 at Caesars)
Drew Rasmussen has been the Tampa Bay Rays’ ace this season, compiling a 7-5 record and 2.93 ERA in 20 starts. He’s extremely consistent and typically puts his best foot forward each week. When it comes to strikeouts, the righty has 82 of them in 95 1/3 innings of work so far.
However, they’ve been few and far between over the last month. Rasmussen has cashed the Under in punchouts in three of his previous four appearances. In fact, he only had four strikeouts combined in three of those starts.
Rasmussen is getting a lot of his outs via contact, which keeps his defense busy. That’s a good thing. He’s struck out just 25 batters in 30 frames on the road this year, too.
Even though the New York Yankees do rank eighth in most strikeouts, and Rasmussen posted seven Ks earlier in the campaign against them, I’ll follow the latest trends here.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Rays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 strikeouts
Yandy Diaz home run
Rays moneyline
Yandy Diaz continues to shine for the Rays this year. The veteran is batting .284 with 18 long balls and 61 RBI. He happens to be in a groove right now when it comes to power, smacking four home runs in his last nine contests.
The slugger has smacked 11 of his homers off right-handed pitchers. Cam Schlitter, who starts for the Yanks tonight, has already allowed two long balls in just two big league starts.
The Rays have won two in a row against the Yankees, and both victories have come in the Bronx. Rasmussen has a 7-5 record this season and has won two of his last three starts, allowing just three earned runs across his previous two appearances combined.
Although Tampa was just swept by the Reds, having Rasmussen on the mound should instill some confidence in them to bounce back here. No Judge in the Yankees' lineup obviously changes things for the hosts, too. There's value in the visitors on the moneyline in the series opener.
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Rays vs Yankees odds
Rays vs Yankees live odds
Rays vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +102 | New York -113
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Rays vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+9.52 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rays vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Monday, 7-28-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNSUN, YES |
| Rays starting pitcher | Drew Rasmussen (7-5, 2.93 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (1-0, 4.35 ERA) |
Rays vs Yankees latest injuries
Rays vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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