The Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers will conclude a three-game series tonight on national television.
Each game provided some nice entertainment, but the Atlanta Braves won each by multiple runs.
What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we give out our MLB picks and Rangers vs. Braves predictions for Sunday, April 21.
Rangers vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Ronald Acuna Jr. to steal a base (+200 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Ronald Acuna Jr. enters Sunday Night Baseball on the cusp of history. He has a chance to break the Atlanta Braves stolen base record tonight, and given the moment and the prior history, we're backing him in doing it.
It doesn't matter who is on the mound, at least from a slowing-the-basepaths-down perspective. That's because Acuna's base-stealing abilities supersede whatever the pitcher does on the mound to slow down those runners. He is one of the best baserunners of his generation and the metrics, like a sprint speed in the Top 1% of my baseball, illustrate that. There's also the matter of this being the primetime Sunday Night Baseball game. Acuna is a showman, and he'll be itching underneath the bright lights for this moment.
The biggest question to answer here is if Acuna will get on base. We like his chances.
Acuna has been in a slump but he matches up quite well with Texas Rangers righty Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen has had an issue with the hard-hit ball throughout his career, and this season he's on pace to post his worst career number (57%). Not many Braves make more regular or solid contact than Acuna.
It also helps that Acuna has favorable splits against the pitches that he'll see. Lorenzen will feature a heavy dosage of the fastball and sinker. Today, Acuna has the highest run value and batting average against sinkers. And, although he's struggled over the last few weeks against it, Acuna has historically been an above-average hitter against the fastball.
Back Acuna to grab a bag tonight. He'll relish the opportunity to make history beneath the bright lights of Sunday Night Baseball.
Rangers vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Ronald Acuna Jr. to steal a base
Marcell Ozuna to record an RBI
We're pairing Acuna to swipe a base with Marcell Ozuna to record an RBI for our same-game parlay. It's highly correlated.
Acuna should be able to get into a scoring position because of what we've spoken about above, and Ozuna should be able to drive him in. He leads the NL in RBIs (24) coming in, and given the firepower around him, it's obvious why. It's also helpful that, like Acuna, Ozuna matches up well against the pitches he's most likely to see.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Braves odds
Rangers vs Braves live odds
Rangers vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 | Atlanta -1.5
- Moneyline: Texas +142 | Atlanta -154
- Over/Under: Over 10 | Under 10
Rangers vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Money has flowed in on the Braves since betting opened. The moneyline has gone from -146 to -168 as of Sunday afternoon. We've also seen a shift in the total as it's climbed from 9 to 9.5.
- Atlanta has been strong in this series, winning four of the last five meetings. However, extending that period to 10 games shows a more competitive matchup, with Atlanta holding just a 6-4 advantage.
- Punters are up 3.6 units backing Atlanta this season year.
Rangers vs Braves trend
The Braves have hit the Over in 38 of their last 59 games (+14.70 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Braves
Rangers vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Michael Lorenzen (1-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Darius Vines (0-0, 1.93 ERA) |
Rangers vs Braves latest injuries
Rangers vs Braves weather
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