Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Back Abreu to Come Up Clutch

Prop bet #1: All about Abreu

Jose Abreu has been absolutely mashing it for the Astros over the past week, notching 12 RBI through his last five contests, which is tied with Royce Lewis of the Twins for the most in the MLB over that span.

The bulk of Abreu’s work came against the Rangers on Wednesday, when he smashed two home runs and seven RBI, though the Astros slugger isn’t just a one-hit wonder. The first baseman has driven in at least one run in four straight outings and eight of his last 10 games, with 18 total RBI during that stretch.

Abreu has feasted on both fastballs and breaking balls this season, with a .374 slugging percentage (SLG) against the fastball and a .380 SLG when seeing a breaking ball. He’s batting just .156 against offspeed pitches with a .289 SLG, but luckily for him, the changeup is one of Padres starter Seth Lugo’s least-favorite pitches, being thrown just under six percent of the time.

While Lugo has been consistent on the mound for San Diego, throwing three shutout starts in his last four outings, I still like Abreu to continue his hot streak with another RBI — especially at +175.

Jose Abreu prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+175)

Prop bet #2: Seiya More

While Abreu has been getting it done for the Astros with brute power, Seiya Suzuki has been leading the Cubs the old-fashioned way, batting an incredible .520 over his last six games with an MLB-leading 13 hits over the past week.

The right fielder has been on fire since the start of September, entering today’s contest on a nine-game hit streak while recording multiple knocks in five of his last six outings.

It hasn’t just been finesse for Suzuki, though, as he’s also driven in his fair share of runs. He’s coming off a three-game series against the Giants where he notched three RBI in each contest while also blasting two home runs in the series to help his Cubs claim the sweep.

We could see a bit of a pitcher’s duel today in the Cubs vs Diamondbacks matchup with Merrill Kelly taking the mound for Arizona, but the right-hander has looked human in some of his recent starts — most notably allowing 12 hits and seven earned runs in his game against the Dodgers two-back.

Suzuki did notch two hits in Chicago’s 1-0 loss to Arizona on Friday, so we’ll see if he can repeat that performance and help his team get a win this afternoon.

Seiya Suzuki prop: Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: The animal, Steele

Last but not least, we will stick with the Cubs for our final player prop as we turn to their starter, Justin Steele. The southpaw has definitely cemented himself as a contender in the NL Cy Young odds this season with an impressive 16-3 record to go along with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.

Steele comes into today’s ballgame with wins in two straight outings while going 7-0 over his last nine starts. He was absolutely sensational last time out, pitching eight scoreless innings against the Giants on September 4. That was his second straight shutout start, with the left-hander now going 17 consecutive innings without giving up a run.

The D-Backs have won two straight over the Cubs to start the series, though their offense hasn’t really been much to write home about. Excluding a 12-5 victory over Colorado on Wednesday, Arizona has averaged just 2.89 runs across its last nine games. 

The Diamondbacks’ struggling bats could be blood in the water for Steele, who may very well pitch his third straight scoreless start en route to the win.

Justin Steele prop: Record a win (+175 at DraftKings)