We have a very small MLB slate to start the work week, but value can be found in the MLB player props market.
First, I're taking advantage of some speed on the basepaths for the San Diego Padres, and staying out west where a Los Angeles Angels hitter is too undervalued in the bases market. I'm finishing up with a prime-time pitcher delivering a prime-time performance on the mound.
What are the best bets for today? Take a look as I review today's MLB odds for the best MLB picks in the player prop department on Monday, September 25.
MLB props for September 25
- Kim Over 0.5 SB
- O'Hoppe Over 1.5 TB
- Castillo Over 5.5 Ks
Picks made on September 25 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Happy feet
Logan Webb will take the mound tonight for the San Francisco Giants and, in doing so, is the best target to have a base stolen on him. Over the past two seasons, Webb has allowed 34 swipes, which is the second-most in this slate behind Blake Snell (38). However, I prefer the matchup here for the San Diego Padres hitters.
The biggest question to answer is how much of a chance Ha-Seong Kim has to get on base. He's the best steal threat on San Diego by far so you have to think he'll be moving if given the opportunity. I expect him to get on base, perhaps multiple times. Webb has taken a step back this season and has given up the hard-hit ball a reasonable amount. Kim isn't going to smash the ball like some other Padre hitters, but we're looking for contact, and he does that.
Kim will be the only player in San Diego's lineup today with a whiff rate of 10% or less against the changeup and sinker. Those pitches make up just over 75% of Webb's arsenal, which means there's a significantly high chance Kim puts the ball in play. The combo of his overall speed and hitting ability gets him on base, and he takes advantage of it. It's worth a bet at this price.
Ha-Seong Kim prop: Over 0.5 stolen bases
Prop bet #2: O'Hopping with joy
As we draw down the stretch, Logan O'Hoppe has made the most of his increased role for the Los Angeles Angels. He has a hit in four of his previous five games — including two dongs — and has a great matchup this evening, against Jon Gray.
Gray has had his issues this season. He's improved some, given how he was earlier in the year, but the hard-hit ball has still been an issue. He comes into this matchup and hasn't allowed at least one home run in five straight starts. I'm not sure O'Hoppe goes yard, but he's well-suited to take advantage of these issues.
That's because O'Hoppe comes into this game with the highest hard-hit rate against the four-seam fastball in today's lineup. The only Angel with a higher hard-hit rate against it is likely the one you guessed, Shohei Ohtani. I priced this at -140, but my handicap suggests there may be an even better edge than that.
Logan O'Hoppe prop: Over 1.5
Prop bet #3: Swing and a miss
I projected this number at 6.5, which makes it easily the best edge on the board. The juice is a bit extreme, but it's still one I'm fine taking.
Luis Castillo has gone Over this number once against the Houston Astros in his last three starts, but he's red hot right now. Castillo has three straight starts with eight Ks in each of them, and I'm backing him to deliver in what amounts to a massive game for both teams.
The Seattle Mariners enter today just a half-game back from the last Wild Card spot in the American League: The Astros currently occupy that spot. No metric means a ton to me because of the situational aspects of things. Castillo has delivered time and time again in these spots, and I'm backing him here.
Luis Castillo prop: Over 5.5 Ks
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