We've got a packed Friday of baseball action with 16 games on the MLB betting slate, which means thousands of player props to consider.
We dig through all the numbers to find the best value out there, and today I'm backing a red-hot Angels hitter and putting my money on a pair of pitchers; one who will benefit from home-field advantage against a team that has thrown in the towel, and the other who has been flying under the radar.
Here are my best free MLB player prop bets for September 30.
MLB props for September 30
Picks made on 9/30/2022 at 11:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Angel in the Outfield
It's taken Taylor Ward a few years to carve out a full-time role on the Angels, but the 2015 first-round selection is proving his worth this season. Ward is slashing .281/.364/.474 in 129 games and has been on fire lately, slashing .426/.462/.809 with three doubles and five homers in the last 15 days.
Today, the Angels are hosting the Texas Rangers, who will have Glenn Otto toeing the rubber. Otto has a 4.73 ERA with a 5.09 xERA in 25 starts, and his expected slugging percentage of .427 is in the bottom 25th percentile of all pitchers.
Ward hits better against right-handers like Otto (.490 slugging) and also has better splits at home than away (.502 slugging percentage at Angel Stadium compared to .454 on the road). Take the Over 1.5 total bases for Ward at plus money.
Taylor Ward Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+143)
Ten Things I Love About Yu
The Chicago White Sox have been eliminated from the postseason and head to San Diego today to take on a Padres' team looking to secure a Wild Card berth.
The Padres have Yu Darvish on the mound, and the five-time All-Star has pitched to a sizzling 2.45 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP and an OBA of .177 in 12 starts at pitcher-friendly Petco Park this season.
Darvish faces off against a White Sox team that looks to have given up on its season by losing eight of its last nine games. Chicago's lineup has gone ice-cold at the plate, batting .201 with an MLB-worst OPS of .561 over the last 15 days, and the absence of two of their most reliable hitters in Tim Anderson and Luis Robert has really hurt.
With Darvish allowing fewer than six hits in each of his last seven starts (0.70 WHIP with a .150 OBA during that span), take the Under 5.5 on his total hits allowed tonight.
Yu Darvish Prop: Darvish Under 5.5 hits allowed (-145)
Joining the Kelly Gang
He might be flying under the radar playing in the desert for a non-playoff team, but Arizona's Merrill Kelly is putting together a solid season. The right-hander is 13-7 with a 3.13 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP in 31 starts.
While he isn't exactly a power pitcher, the right-hander has been fanning more batters lately, averaging 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings during the second half of the season after averaging 7.3 K/9 in the first half. Kelly has seen a 1 mph uptick in the velocity on his four-seamer, changeup, and sinker from last year, and he's also throwing his changeup with a lot more movement.
Tonight, Kelly and the Diamondbacks are hosting the San Francisco Giants, who rank 25th in the majors in strikeout rate. With Kelly striking out at least six batters in eight of his last nine starts (including a pair of outings against San Fran), take the Over 5.5 on his punchouts total.
Merrill Kelly Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $65.27 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.