Philadelphia (64%) is a sizable favorite to take the series finale against Houston as I make my Astros vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 10.
The Phillies are 8-2 with a 2.5-run average margin of victory in home games with Zack Wheeler on the mound, and I'm expecting that success to continue tonight.
Who will win Astros vs Phillies today: Philadelphia Phillies (63%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Zack Wheeler appears to have rebounded after a mid-season rough patch. He posted an xERA of 3.14 in three of the past four starts, and Wheeler is in a good spot to build on that against the Houston Astros.
They sit 28th in xwOBA against right-handed pitching in September, and rank dead-last over the past 30 games.
Cristian Javier has found his footing as well, but five of his past six starts came against teams ranking in the bottom 10 in OPS vs. righties (the Philadelphia Phillies are 18th).
Play this to 66%.
COVERS INTEL: Zack Wheeler ranks in the 90th percentile in pitching run value, giving the Phillies a clear advantage on the mound.
Astros vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (50%)
I don’t see either team producing a ceiling performance at the plate.
The Astros are 26th in hard-hit rate and 28th in squared-up contact against righties this month. They’re not stringing together many damaging swings.
While the Phillies have been generating more hard-hit balls, they’re not finding barrels. Only the Guardians rank below the Phillies in barrels versus righties in September.
Javier’s pitching profile has improved drastically of late, but he's still struggling to limit home runs. The matchup should help.
Play to 53%.
Astros vs Phillies home run prediction: Bryce Harper (22%)
Fastballs and changeups account for nearly 70% of what Javier throws against left-handed hitters. That should play into Bryce Harper's hands, as he's gone nuclear when facing those two pitches this season.
Harper has hit .354 with an xwOBA of nearly .500. More importantly, his barrel rate sits at 17.2% and his xSLG has cleared .700.
He consistently hammers those pitches, and Harper will see a steady diet of fastballs and changeups with Javier on the mound.
- ML/RL bets: 106-92, -7.4 units
- Over/Under bets: 101-91-6, -2.61 units
Astros vs Phillies weather
Temperatures in the low 80s are expected, with winds blowing left to right. That's a boost to the bats.
Astros vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Astros 38% | Phillies 63%
- Run line: Astros +1.5 (55%) | Phillies -1.5 (46%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (51%) | Under 8.5 (50%)
Astros vs Phillies trend
Philadelphia has hit the moneyline in 18 of the last 24 games (+10.80 units, 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Phillies.
How to watch Astros vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Thursday, September 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Astros starting pitcher | Cristian Javier (2-5, 5.98 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (12-5, 3.24 ERA) |
Astros vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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