The MLB playoff push of the late summer months is just around the corner and there are numerous prop markets to exploit as a result. This article will try to find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
Yesterday was a give-back day with not much going our way but a trio of Sunday props will hopefully finish off the weekend on the right note.
Today, we’re riding the hottest hitter in baseball, fading a pitcher who is working his way back from injury, and getting a little touch of Gray in Los Angeles.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for July 25.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (-136)
Juan Soto has been the hottest hitter in the second half. He is slashing .333/.433/.541 and leads baseball in OPS, HR, wOBA, and WAR. Soto launched his 17th homer last night and gets another day in Baltimore to pad his stats.
His matchup versus Baltimore’s John Means — 2.72 ERA — may not look exploitable at first glance, but the Orioles’ starter will be making his second start in over a month and got shelled in his first go on Tuesday. In all, the left-hander yielded five runs over five frames while striking out just two. Means is not the pitcher he was at the beginning of the year after his shoulder issues.
Soto carries a .920 OPS versus LHP into Sunday’s match and we’re hoping he can top his Over 1.5 total bases prop in one swing of the bat.
Nine mph winds to straight away center field should also help the Nats’ star to pick up a few extra bases.
Sony Gray Under 16.5 total outs recorded (-115)
Cincinnati’s Sonny Gray has recorded more than 15 outs just once in his last five starts and is getting 18 outs in just 31 percent of his starts this year. He started the second half on a bad note, lasting just 4 2-3 innings versus Milwaukee last Sunday as elevated pitch counts are dooming the right-hander from getting deep.
Gray issued a season-high four walks on Sunday and struck out six batters in the brief outing. Numbers like that make it impossible for a pitcher like Gray to finish the sixth inning. The July 18th start was the pitcher’s first since July 7 as injuries have slowed him down in 2021.
Gray will face a Cardinals team that doesn’t strike out often (22 percent) which should also extend some at-bats. They also forced the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, who leads the team in strikeouts, to hit the pine after 15 outs in the opener on Friday.
We like betting against pitchers who show struggles after coming back from injuries because one more bad outing may land them on the IL again.
Jon Gray Over 4.5 strikeouts (-130)
No probable pitcher today has struck out more batters over the last 30 days than Colorado’s Jon Gray. The right-hander has struck out 37 over his last 30 innings and that includes seven last Sunday versus the Dodgers in a 6-5 win. Gray recorded a punchout in all but one of his seven innings and has topped his K prop in four straight starts.
The Dodgers are striking out in over 25 percent of their at-bats in the second half which is a bottom-seven mark in baseball. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland managed six strikeouts in his start yesterday as the Dodgers have been struggling of late with just a pair of wins across their last seven games.
If Gray can get his 18 outs or more, he should have a great shot at topping his 4.5 strikeout total. We like this number up to 5.5 if it does go north and move off the 4.5.
MLB betting card for July 25
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (-136)
- Sonny Gray Under 16.5 total outs recorded (-115)
- Jon Gray Over 4.5 strikeouts (-130)
Picks made on 7/25/2021 at 8:53 a.m. ET
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