The New York Yankees could split the series with a win over the Boston Red Sox on Sunday after a dramatic come-from-behind victory yesterday at Fenway.
The Yankees’ offense struggled for the majority of yesterday’s match but strung four two-out hits together in the eighth to take a 4-3 lead after entering the inning down 3-0. With the loss, the Red Sox have now allowed the Tampa Bay Rays to tie them for the division lead. The Yankees are still eight games back.
Boston opened as a -141 favorite with the total hitting 10.5.
Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Red Sox on July 25.
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Sunday, July 25, 2021
• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, NESN
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Domingo German (4-5, 4.40 ERA): The New York right-hander has recently been working out of the bullpen and has made just one start since July 7. German started last week versus the Phillies and lasted 70 pitches while allowing two runs over four innings. He’s seen the Red Sox three times this year — two starts and once in relief — and has held his own, sporting a 3.35 ERA with the Boston bats slugging just .375.
Martin Perez (7-6, 4.16 ERA): The Yankees have not been kind to Perez this year as his two starts have totaled just 7 2-3 innings. New York batters are slashing .344/.400/.469 this season versus the lefty while Perez has a career 7.04 ERA against the Bombers. Another troubling area is Perez’s road splits. In his 11 starts at Fenway this year, he has 5.80 ERA and a more-than-generous 1.80 WHIP with nine homes in 46 innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Chris Gittens 1B (Questionable), Gary Sanchez C (Questionable), Aaron Judge OF (Out), Aaron Hicks OF (Out), Miguel Andujar 3B (Out), Luke Voit 1B (Out), Clint Frazier OF (Out).
Red Sox: Danny Santana OF (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
Boston moved to 9-3 SU versus the Yankees this season after yesterday’s defeat. ESPN had the Red Sox as 96 percent probable to win the game before the Yankees got to reliever Adam Ottavino, who allowed three runs — two earned — while recording just one out. The Boston offense fell asleep after scoring a run in each of the game’s first three innings and finished with just seven hits and went 1-for-7 with RISP.
The Yankees have a slight edge on the mound in the finale today. Last Sunday, we didn’t fade Perez because of how weak the New York lineup was despite a handful of red flags. It’s safe to say he burned us. Perez gave up three runs in four innings in the 9-1 loss and we aren’t trusting the southpaw this time around.
Perez has allowed 101 hits in 80 innings of work and when you add in 30 more walks, you get a pitcher with a near-1.50 WHIP. The Yankees have the best walk rate versus LHP in baseball at 14.1 percent and the highest OPS in baseball versus southpaws at .870. Perez is a great matchup for the Yankees, even with all the injuries.
German, meanwhile, should be able to hit the 85-90 pitch mark on Sunday after reaching 70 pitches in his last start. German is allowing less than a hit per inning and should be back to normal after a root canal disrupted his pitching before the break. Home runs are always an issue for the Dominican pitcher but he has held the Red Sox to a .678 OPS through 10-plus innings this year to go along with a 3.38 ERA.
Boston has the better offense, that isn’t debatable, but Perez has looked horrific versus New York and been terrible at home. New York will be riding the high of yesterday’s dramatic win and hopefully that confidence carries into the early innings against the Boston lefty.
PREDICTION: Yankees (+120)
Over/Under pick
Yesterday’s Under hung on to win despite getting put on life support in the eighth inning. The Yankees’ offense helped out in a big way, failing to score in eight of the nine innings while the Boston offense hit the snooze button after building a 3-0 lead and losing 4-3. Now on Sunday, we're getting an extra run on the total thanks to some shaky starting pitching but we aren’t expecting fireworks.
The New York lineup is still worth fading. They were lucky to scrape across four runs yesterday and we doubt the No. 8 and No. 9 spots go 3-for-7 with a run and a walk again. With Brett Garder and Rougned Odor occupying the No. 2 and No. 4 spots, this isn’t a very threatening lineup. We still like them to cross a few runs against Perez, but there are just too many roadblocks that will stop the lineup from working down the order.
Aroldis Chapman picked up the save yesterday. It was a slight improvement from his other games but he still almost blew it again. A two-out walk gave way to a Christian Vazquez ground-rule double that was a gift to the Yankees as it put runners at third and second in the 4-3 game. But Chapman looked better and that double was a jam-shot that Vazquez was lucky to muscle over the infield. Chapman dug in and struck out Enrique Hernandez to collect his second save since June 20.
Boston’s bullpen will also come into this game fresh after throwing just 1 1-3 innings yesterday. Red Sox relievers have the third-best ERA in the AL and could be asked to get more than nine outs with Perez starting the game.
PREDICTION: Under 10.5 (-110)
Yankees vs Red Sox betting card
- Yankees (+120)
- Under 10.5 (-110)
Picks made on 7/25/2021 at 7:28 a.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Yankees vs. Red Sox picks, you could win $32.00 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on MLB odds?
You can bet on MLB odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB moneylines, runlines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB odds in your area.
