Today’s MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions: Matz Goes Deep, D-backs Fall Short

A favorable matchup and struggling bullpen should allow Toronto's Steven Matz to go deep. We also like the Reds' Vladimir Gutierrez to keep piling up the Ks and expect little offense from Arizona at Coors. Check out all our MLB prop picks for August 22.

Last Updated: Aug 22, 2021 8:42 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jon Gray Colorado Rockies MLB
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It’s do-or-die time in MLB which means a lot is riding on every pitch from here until October. This article will try to find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it. 

We’re coming off a 1-2 SU Saturday and looking to get into the black to finish off the weekend. Today, we’re getting pitcher heavy and looking at a total out prop north of the border, a strikeout prop in Cincy, and some favorable splits in the thin air of Coors Field.

Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Sunday, August 22.

Today’s MLB props and picks

Steven Matz Over 17.5 total outs (-128)

The Jays’ bullpen has been awful of late. It's been so bad that starters are being asked to throw a little more and eat some innings. Steven Matz will get the call today for Toronto and has a great shot at going six-plus innings versus a Detroit lineup that has scored just one run in the series (extra-innings not included).

Through two games, the Tigers are hitting .220 with just two extra-base hits. They’re also striking out at the second-highest rate in baseball this month at 28 percent which should also help Matz get 18 outs. 

Matz has a 2.94 ERA over his last seven games and although he hasn’t notched six innings in two straight starts, this is a great matchup for him to get deep. Toronto doesn’t have the confidence to use four pitchers right now and Matz should be leaned on to get as many outs as possible.

Vladimir Gutierrez Over 5.5 strikeouts (+101)

Cincinnati’s Vladimir Gutierrez has recorded five straight quality starts and topped 5.5 strikeouts in three straight games. He owns a 1.99 ERA over the last 30 days and gets to face a Miami offense that is scoring runs at a Bottom-10 rate this month.

Like most Reds pitchers, Gutierrez’s numbers at Great American Ballpark aren’t great, but the Marlins might not have a chance to pile up the runs if they keep striking out at such a high rate.

Only the Cubs and Tigers are striking out more in August than the Marlins and their 30 percent K rate. Gutierrez is a strikeout-per-inning pitcher and the fish are striking out nearly every third batter. If the young pitcher can go six innings, he’ll have a great shot at hitting the Over on his 5.5 K prop that currently sits at plus money.

Arizona Diamondback team total Under 5.5 (-139)

It might defy logic, but Colorado pitcher Jon Gray can’t wait to get back to Coors Field where his ERA sits at 3.27 compared to 4.69 on the road. He is coming into Sunday’s home matchup versus Arizona following a pair of duds on the road versus the Giants and Astros and will be looking to get things back on track versus a team he’s already seen twice this season and owns a 1.13 WHIP against. 

Arizona managed just two runs in the thin air yesterday and finished 1-for-9 with RISP. The day before that, the Diamondbacks finished 1-for-14 with RISP and lost 9-4. In his last 10 starts at home, Gray and the Rockies have allowed their opponent to score more than five runs just once.

Getting the Diamondbacks’ team total at 5.5 seems like a great way to wrap up our MLB prop slate. Arizona has topped 5.5 runs three times in their last 10, which includes six straight-up wins.

MLB betting card for August 22

  • Steven Matz Over 17.5 total outs (-128)
  • Franklin Gutierrez Over 5.5 strikeouts (+101)
  • Arizona Diamondback team total Under 5.5 (-139)

Picks made on 8/22/2021 at 7:39 a.m. ET

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