Pete Crow-Armstrong got me to the window again last night for another winning night, and the big day to flip the record is happening this week, hopefully today, with a full slate of all-day MLB player props and dingers.
The only thing working against Jo Adell tonight is a possible knee injury, but it didn't slow him down last night, and I'm jumping on the slugging right-hander in a good matchup. Adell rounds out our slate, which already includes Griffin Conine against Aaron Nola, and the red-hot Pete Crow-Armstrong.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, Aug. 19.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Griffin Conine |
+388 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
+510 |
 Jo Adell |
+575 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +15239 |
Home run pick: Griffin Conine (+388)
It’s another Aaron Nola angle, as his 30 home runs allowed pace the league. He’s also coming off a game he had circled on the calendar in the Field of Dreams game, and over his last 12 starts, he’s allowed a dinger in 11 of them. I will bet against him every five days.
Griffin Conine is the bat you want to back today. He’s gone deep five times over his last 16 games and leads the Miami Marlins in several offensive categories this month. His 28% Blast Contact% in August is the fifth-best mark in baseball, behind Wilyer Abreu, Austin Riley, Randal Grichuk, and Jac Caglianone. Conine also homered Tuesday, his fifth of August.
I’ll take almost any hot bat in the best HR matchup at +300 or better.
- Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins.TV, NBCSP
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+510)
Remain calm. This is not a drill. After two months of absolute raking, I thought the days of getting Pete Crow-Armstrong for a home run at +500 or better were long gone. I've had a price point of +300 or better to bet him, so when I saw +500 today, I had to do a double-take.
This is setting up like yesterday's game, with PCA facing a lefty opener, which is driving his odds up because of the lefty-lefty matchup. Well, even with a lefty opener last night, the MVP betting favorite opened the bottom of the first with a leadoff homer at +330.
So how is Sean Newcomb making his price almost 200 points longer? The wind is in at Wrigley, but nothing crazy enough to justify the prices we're seeing today.
I will back the MVP at +330 or better in almost any matchup.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Chicago Sports Network
Home run pick: Jo Adell (+575)
The San Francisco Giants are rolling out a big lefty in Matt Wilkinson, who is making his MLB debut.
He’s a 2023 10th-round pick who started the season in rookie ball but also allowed seven homers over 43 innings at Triple-A before the promotion. All of those home runs came against right-handed bats, and Jo Adell is one of only two true right-handed hitters in the Cleveland Guardians lineup.
Adell exited last night’s game with knee pain, but there’s reason to be optimistic about his chances of getting into the lineup. He was pulled with Cleveland well ahead, 8-1, after going 3-for-4 with a homer and six RBI. He initially injured his knee fouling a ball off it in the first inning.
Hopefully, it was just precautionary, as he’s heating up for the Guardians, and +575 is too long for our MLB picks to ignore. The fair price is +475 today.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC Sports Bay Area, Guardians.TV
- HR picks: 32-155, -2.07 units
Today’s HR combo
| Griffin Conine |
Trade Now +15239 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
|
| Jo Adell |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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