Just because football is back doesn’t mean we should forget about MLB player props, and with a bases-loaded schedule of 30 games on the betting board for September 10, there's plenty of value to be found.
My favorites include total bases props for two lefty sluggers, and I also discuss why Shota Imanaga's workday will get cut short against the Dodgers.
MLB props for September 10
- Cruz o1.5 TB (+120 at bet365)
- Soto o1.5 TB (+145 at bet365)
- Imanaga u17.5 outs (+145 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 total bases
The Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates are both in the basement of their respective divisions, but it feels at least like the Pirates are building toward something.
The Buccos will also try to beat the Fish for the sixth straight time this season when they continue their three-game set at PNC Park tonight.
One of the reasons the Pirates are building is because they have cornerstone pieces to build around like Oneil Cruz. While streaky at times, the behemoth of a shortstop is having a solid season, entering this game with a .269 batting average, a .791 OPS, 19 home runs, and 70 RBI.
And after ending August on a tear, Cruz is starting to heat up in September following a bit of a slow start to the month. Cruz is hitting .357 with a 1.129 OPS, including three extra-base hits over his last four games.
That doesn’t bode well for Marlins starter Adam Oller, who Miami signed in August after the Cleveland Guardians released him. The 29-year-old RHP had spent the entirety of the season in the minors, so of course he joined the Marlins rotation immediately.
To be fair, Oller pitched well in two starts against the Cubs and Giants, but he’s been getting barreled up a lot, and his expected ERA of 5.00 would rank in the Bottom 15 percentile among MLB pitchers if he qualified.
And you don’t want to let Cruz — one of the most powerful hitters in the game — barrel you up. The SS has also been much more productive when he has the platoon edge. His average and OPS bump up to .284 and .833 when facing right-handed pitching this season.
Give me Cruz to go Over his total bases in this one, something he has done 10 times in his last 16 games.
Prop bet #2: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Juan Soto continues to do his thing. Last night, he went 1-for-2 with three walks, helping the New York Yankees take the series opener against the Kansas City Royals by a score of 10-4.
Soto enters this game hitting .292 with a 1.005 OPS with 38 home run and 98 RBI, and he’s just been consistently good all season long. He has a .306 average with a .917 OPS over his last 10, and I like the matchup he gets tonight vs. Royals righty Seth Lugo.
The Royals have won many games this season with Lugo on the mound, and while his 3.05 ERA looks solid on the surface, he's a below-league-average starter. Lugo ranks in the 56th percentile in expected ERA and in the 40th percentile in opponent xBA.
Not surprisingly, Soto has been more effective against RHP this season, tagging them for a .302 average and a 1.029 OPS. He also has solid career numbers against Lugo from their respective times in the National League East. Soto has five hits, including a dinger, in 15 ABs against Lugo.
That has me eyeing Soto’s total bases prop which is at 1.5 with the Over at nice plus money. We’re getting that price because Soto has stayed Under in four straight, combined with Lugo’s perceived effectiveness.
All I see is value, and so do our Covers Prop Projections, which have it as a five-star play. I'll happily add it to my MLB picks slip.
Prop bet #3: Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 outs
There are some really awesome pitching matchups today, but the one in Chavez Ravine might be the most intriguing of all.
Countrymen Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will face off when the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Dodgers continue their three-game set at Dodger Stadium.
Tonight, my focus is on Imanaga. The 31-year-old lefty has had an impressive rookie season — pitching to a 2.99 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP — and he comes into this one in a groove with a 2.68 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP over his last six starts.
But a quick look at Imanaga’s recent opponents tells us he isn’t exactly taking down juggernaut lineups. He’s faced Minnesota, Cleveland, Toronto, Miami, Washington, and Pittsburgh over that stretch. Suffice to say, the Dodgers will present a little more of a challenge.
While Shohei Ohtani is getting all the publicity, the Dodgers have only really returned to form since Mookie Betts has returned from his hand injury: L.A. ranks third in batting average and fourth in both in OPS and wRC+ since his return.
The Dodgers have also been a problem for lefties for most of the season ranking third in batting average, OPS and wRC+.
That has me looking at Imanaga’s pitching outs prop for this matchup, which is on the board at 17.5 with the Under at tantalizing plus money.
Imanaga has gone Over that number in his last three starts, but those games were against inferior competition.
The Cubs southpaw has been able to work deep into games because he’s been efficient, but he generally doesn’t have a super-long leash, averaging just over 88 pitches per start and having only hit 100 pitches three times. If that efficiency dips against a tougher Dodgers’ lineup, then he could be in for a shorter outing.
And that’s exactly what our Covers Prop Projections are calling for, putting Imanaga at 15.8 outs giving us nearly two outs of value on the Under. It’s a five-star play to boot.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
