Tuesday's full slate is here, and I have a couple of player props I'm fired up to dish out! I'm backing a pair of red-hot bats in prime spots, while fading a southpaw who looks destined to get shelled early.
Let's dive in!
Here are my three favorite MLB player props for July 28.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Gage Jump |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -149 |
 Willson Contreras |
Over 1.5 total bases | -115 |
 Freddie Freeman |
Over 1.5 total bases | -102 |
Gage Jump Over 2.5 earned runs (-149)
Out of the gate, if you're not in the business of laying juice, you can grab the Boston Red Sox first five team total Over 2.5 at -125. Regardless, it's "Fade Gage Jump" day.
The Athletics southpaw is the third lowest rated pitcher on today's slate according to Batters-Box. He also grades out poorly in matchup wOBA, ISO, and hard contact. To make matters worse, he draws four elite-rated Red Sox hitters and four more with strong ratings, giving Boston the highest-rated offense on the slate.
Jump has been shelled over his last 11 innings, posting an 11.45 ERA and 5.77 xERA, while allowing a 55% hard-hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and just a 30% ground ball rate. Opposing hitters have produced a .727 xSLG, .384 xwOBA, and .362 ISO during that stretch.
Boston has mashed left-handed pitching all season, posting a 117 wRC+, .342 wOBA, .775 OPS, and .176 ISO. With this game being played in Sacramento, I think the Red Sox keep the bats rolling and get all over everything Jump leaves over the plate.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, NBCSCA
Willson Contreras Over 1.5 total bases (-115)
Yup, after failing to cash this prop last night, I am running it right back against lefty Gage Jump. Red Sox slugger Willson Contreras finds himself in another smash spot, carrying an elite Batters-Box rating while covering 84% of Jump's pitch mix.
Contreras has crushed left-handed pitching all season, and his recent numbers back that up. Over his last 30 at bats against lefties, he owns a .600 slugging percentage, 1.000 OPS, and .320 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate.
Jump has been getting torched by right-handed hitters. Over the last 60 he's faced, opponents own a .404 xBA, .667 xSLG, .365 xwOBA, and .360 ISO. They've also generated a 55.6% hard-hit rate, 14% barrel rate, and 52.8% elevation rate.
I like this prop down to -120.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, NBCSCA
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (-102)
This evening we're backing arguably the most consistent hitter in baseball, Los Angeles Dodgers star Freddie Freeman, to go Over 1.5 total bases against Seattle Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo.
Freeman enters Tuesday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he continues to produce some of the most consistent elite-rated trends in the game.
Through 16 elite ratings this season, he has cashed this prop nearly 69% of the time, recording two or more total bases in seven of his last 10 elite-rated matchups.
Even over a much larger sample of 109 elite ratings across the last three seasons, he's still clearing this number 52.29% of the time.
On top of that, Freeman has been one of the hottest bats in the Dodgers lineup. Over his last 30 ABs against right-handed pitching, he owns a .407 batting average, .519 slugging percentage, .952 OPS, and .411 wOBA. In his last five games against a right-hander, he has posted a ridiculous 300 wRC+ with a .600 batting average.
Castillo has struggled against left-handed hitters on the road this season, allowing a .282 batting average, .540 slugging percentage, and .382 wOBA while producing a 69.6% elevation rate and 40.4% hard-hit rate.
I want to ride the hot bat against an inconsistent arm.
Take this down to -115.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, SEAM
- Prop picks: 343-666, -12.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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