Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props, best bets, and MLB picks to attack on July 21.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Elly De La Cruz |
Over 1.5 H/R/R | -117 |
 Matt Olson |
Over 1.5 total bases | +116 |
 Griffin Conine |
Over 1.5 H/R/R | +117 |
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-117)
Cincinnati Reds superstar Elly De La Cruz enters Tuesday’s matchup against Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo with an elite rating on Batters-Box, while carrying 100% arsenal coverage against Castillo’s entire pitch mix.
In 144 elite-rated games dating back over the last three seasons, De La Cruz has gone over this prop 55% of the time.
Across his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, he owns a .370 batting average, .667 slugging percentage, 1.100 OPS, and .297 ISO, while generating a 60.9% hard hit rate and 8.7% barrel rate.
On the other side, Castillo has struggled against left-handed hitters lately. Over his last 30 left-handed hitters faced, they have produced a 50% hard hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, and 58% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .344 expected batting average and .645 expected slugging percentage.
I would play this down to -125 if I had to, or take his bases for plus money.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, Mainers.TV
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases (+116)
The pride of the Braves, Mr. Matt Olson, finds himself in a boom spot at the dish this evening against Padres right-hander Walker Buehler.
Olson enters Tuesday with one of the highest ratings on the slate over on Batters-Box, where he also carries an 83.5% arsenal coverage against Buehler’s entire pitch mix.
So far this season, in 17 elite ratings, Olson has gone over this prop 47% of the time, while leaving the yard nearly 30% of the time as well.
Across his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, he is generating nearly 53% hard hit and a 20% barrel rate. On top of that, he owns a 1.014 OPS and .392 ISO.
On the other side, Buehler has been getting crushed by left-handed hitters. Over his last 30 left-handed hitters faced, they have produced a 50% hard hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and 60% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .527 xSLG and .263 xBA.
I would not pay juice for this prop, so look for the best price possible.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, SPA
Griffin Conine Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+117)
Mr. Marlin’s son, Griffin Conine, finds himself in a strong spot this evening against Astros starter Tatsuya Imai, who owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate over on Batters-Box.
Imai has been getting lit up by left-handed hitters, allowing a 55% hard hit rate, 20% barrel rate, and 70% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .446 xBA, .457 xSLG, and .498 xwOBA.
Conine has been on a tear over his last few games. In his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, he owns a .310 BA, .759 SLG, 1.092 OPS, and .449 ISO, while generating a 50% hard hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate.
Conine also enters today with an elite rating while covering nearly 100% of Imai’s pitch mix. Getting an elite-rated hitter to surpass 1.5 HRR at plus money is always a steal. Do not pay juice for this one.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, MIAM
- Prop picks: 321-594, -1.00 Units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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