Why would anyone want to pay juice on MLB player props on a full-slate Tuesday?
We have a ton of value to attack this evening, so here are my favorite three hitters to have some success at the dish on June 23, led by Juan Soto.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Juan Soto |
Over 1.5 total bases | +113 |
 Bryce Harper |
Over 1.5 total bases | +100 |
 Ivan Herrera |
Over 1.5 total bases | +118 |
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+113)
Despite seemingly never being on the right side of New York Mets superstar Juan Soto, today feels like the day I finally hit the nail on the head.
Soto draws Chicago Cubs right-hander Edward Cabrera, who brings a poorly-rated matchup in both ISO and hard contact to the table this evening. Meanwhile, the Mets slugger enters with an elite Batters-Box rating, where he not only owns 80% arsenal coverage, but also carries some strong historical trends.
In 96 elite-rated home matchups, Soto records a hit 76% of the time, hits a home run 22% of the time, and clears this prop in 43% of those games.
More importantly, he has been on an absolute tear lately. Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Soto is batting .435 with a .913 SLG and a 1.480 OPS, while producing a 58% hard-hit rate and a 10.5% barrel rate.
On the other side, Cabrera has been getting torched by left-handed hitters. Over his last 60 batters faced, he has allowed a 49% hard-hit rate, a 9.3% barrel rate, and a 59% elevation rate. Those lefties own a .341 xBA, .508 xSLG, and .334 xwOBA against him.
If you zoom in even further, left-handed hitters have elevated the ball at nearly a 72% clip over his last 30 batters faced.
This is a great spot for a hitter with elite arsenal coverage against a pitch mix that grades 68% below league average, and a batter who has been all over everything coming over the plate lately. Take this down to even money.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Marquee
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
You all know numbers get me amped up, and the numbers surrounding Washington Nationals right-hander Zach Littell have me foaming at the mouth as I type this.
He's been getting absolutely torched by left-handed hitters lately, allowing a 74% elevation rate over the last 60 lefties he's faced. Lefties are hitting .333 with a .753 SLG and .478 wOBA against him at Nationals Park.
That brings us to Mr. Bryce Harper.
The Philadelphia Phillies slugger carries an elite rating in both Batters-Box timeframes, and in the current season ratings, he owns the second-highest mark on the slate, trailing only teammate Kyle Schwarber.
However, Harper has the stronger arsenal coverage and the better prices, which is why I am backing him over Schwarber. Do with that information what you will.
In Harper's last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he's slashing .391/.500/.957. He's also producing a 57.9% hard-hit rate and a 10.5% barrel rate.
Do your best to find plus money on this prop. If you cannot, I would rather split the stake; half a unit on a home run and half a unit on a double, to squeeze a little more value out of the matchup.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, NBCSP
Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 total bases (+118)
A guy with a boatload of value today is St. Louis Cardinals designated hitter Ivan Herrera, with his home run prop sitting around +700 this evening. Yes, I sprinkled, and you probably should too.
The 26-year-old has been seeing the ball extremely well of late, batting .333 with a .600 SLG and a 1.100 OPS, while producing a 43.6% hard-hit rate and a 7.7% barrel rate over his last 60 plate appearances against southpaws.
Herrera draws Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, a matchup where he owns a 95.6% arsenal coverage rate, one of the highest marks for an elite rated hitter on the slate. Rodríguez has allowed a 75.6% elevation rate on the road against right-handed hitters, while also giving up a 39% hard-hit rate.
Over his last 60 batters faced, he's allowed a .344 average, .661 SLG, and a .396 wOBA while producing a 75.7% elevation rate.
With Herrera carrying such strong arsenal coverage against a pitch mix that features over 60% below league average offerings, the price is more than fair to take a shot on him going over this prop. Take it down to +110.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, ARID
- Prop picks: 243-434, -0.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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