Loaded Tuesday slate this evening with mispriced prop opportunities, and I am leaning into some familiar power bats in Yordan Alvarez, Nick Kurtz, and Kyle Schwarber to get things rolling.
Read on for our MLB player props and MLB picks for Tuesday, June 2.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | -109 |
 Nick Kurtz |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -104 |
 Kyle Schwarber |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -116 |
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (-109)
I love Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez this evening against Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler.
The big fella has been demolishing baseballs. Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he's posted a 64.4% hard-hit rate, a ridiculous 42.9% barrel rate, and a 78.6% elevation rate (fly balls + line drives).
Not to mention, he owns 100% arsenal coverage against Chandler's pitch mix, per Batters-Box.
The Pirates' rookie has struggled against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a 15.2% barrel rate while generating just a 29.1% ground-ball rate and a 52% fly-ball rate. Lefties have tagged him for a .510 xSLG and .365 xwOBA.
If you need another mouthwatering stat, Chandler is throwing his fastball nearly 54% of the time. Alvarez owns a .468 xBA, 1.136 OPS, and 67.4% hard-hit rate against fastballs this season.
I think he leaves the yard tonight. I'd play this prop up to -115 if I had to. Anything around the number above is still a go.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, SNP
Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
Another complete misprice by the books, as Athletics star Nick Kurtz’s hits, runs, RBI prop is hovering around even money. The young star in the making enters tonight’s slate with the number one rating on Batters-Box, where he sports some of the most mouthwatering trends any numbers nerd has ever laid eyes on.
In 86 elite ratings, he clears this prop 62.79% of the time. In 45 elite ratings on the road, Kurtz jumps to nearly a 70% hit rate. Not to mention, he has gone over this prop in eight of his last 10 elite ratings on the road. Oh, and he brings 81% arsenal coverage into a matchup with Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon.
The veteran arm enters today with one of the weakest pitcher ratings on the slate. He also carries poor matchup grades in wOBA, ISO, hard contact, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate. Among today’s starters, Taillon is allowing the second-highest hard contact rate at 41.9%.
That is not all. Over his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, he is allowing a 41.9% hard contact rate, 19.1% barrel rate, and 73.8% elevation rate. During that stretch, those hitters have posted a .386 xBA, .770 xSLG, and .444 wOBA.
Based on the trends, I would personally take this prop up to -120.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee, NBCSCA
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-116)
Sadly, no plus money props for you all today, unless you count the home run props on every batter listed. Even if it is not mentioned, I always include the home run angle.
This evening, I think Philadelphia Phillies star Kyle Schwarber is due for a big one against San Diego Padres starter Randy Vasquez, who sports poorly rated matchup wOBA, ISO, and strikeout numbers, per Batters-Box.
The Padres starter has struggled to miss bats against left-handed hitters this season, which has me firmly on Schwarber tonight. When you think of the Phillies slugger, you think of a true three-outcome profile.
Vasquez owns just an 8.3% strikeout rate against the last 60 lefties he has faced. In that span, those hitters are posting a 46% hard-contact rate, a 10% barrel rate, and a 68% elevation rate.
Despite an off stretch due to illness, Schwarber still owns a 1.133 OPS, .482 wOBA, and a 33.3% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances at home. In 98 elite home ratings over the last three seasons, he has cleared this prop 55% of the time.
I would take this up to -120 if I had to.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
- Prop picks: 177-313-29, -0.10 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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