After cashing my first profitable MLB player props piece here, I'll look to keep the momentum rolling as a few familiar faces grab my attention tonight.
Byron Buxton, Munetaka Murakami, and Kyle Schwarber all find themselves in prime spots to do damage at the dish, so let’s dive into why each of them could be in for big evenings on Tuesday, May 26.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Byron Buxton |
Over 1.5 total bases | -110 |
 Kyle Schwarber |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -107 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -109 |
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 total bases (-110)
Boots will be grounded for me this evening and I need some action while I suck down a few polish dogs with extra onions.
Twins star Byron Buxton may be the best bat to back on the Southside tonight, as he takes on right hander Sean Burke, who has been getting crushed by right-handed hitters over his last few outings.
The last 30 right-handed hitters Burke has faced own a 14.3% barrel rate with just a 4.8% ground ball rate, while opposing hitters are elevating the ball 95.2% of the time. Those hitters also sport a .387 xBA, .726 xSLG, and .424 xwOBA during that span.
Buxton owns 85.5% arsenal coverage against Burke, while also elevating the ball well over his last 10 games. During that stretch, he owns a 55.2% hard-hit rate and 20.7% barrel rate.
This marks the Twins outfielder’s 36th elite rating on the road. In the previous 35, he has cleared this prop 51.43% of the time and homered 25.71% of the time as well. Of course, I sprinkled on his home run prop.
Overall, Buxton has recorded 2+ bases in six of his last 10 elite-rated spots.
As always, I’m looking out for the “I do not pay juice” crowd. If you are not a fan of laying the -110 here, sprinkle on Buxton’s double and home run props instead. The only way you are losing those is if he triples or strings together multiple singles, plus you are getting a far better number.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, CHSN
Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-109)
Double dipping tonight as I enjoy two props from the nosebleeds.
The second play in a matchup I am all over features the most exciting player in the city of Chicago, Munetaka Murakami. Give me the Over on his hits, runs, and RBI prop set at 1.5.
The White Sox slugger enters tonight with an elite rating on Batters-Box. In 27 elite ratings this season, he has surpassed this prop 55.56% of the time. If you are looking to pair his hit with Byron Buxton’s, Murakami has also recorded a hit in 70.37% of those elite-rated matchups.
Murakami draws Twins right hander Joe Ryan this evening, giving him a great opportunity to take advantage of Ryan’s struggles against left handed hitters. The slugger owns a 1.141 OPS and .481 wOBA over his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching.
Ryan enters today with poorly rated matchup numbers in ISO and ground ball rate, giving one of the most dangerous hitters in the White Sox lineup a chance to elevate and drive the ball tonight.
Sprinkle the home run for some extra fun!
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, CHSN
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-107)
Kyle Schwarber enters today with the highest rating in this matchup, marking his 241st elite rating over the last three years. During that span, he has cleared this prop in 54.17% of those elite ratings.
No different on the road, where he has gone over this number 52.83% of the time across 106 elite ratings.
Despite the slight cold streak following an illness, Schwarber is still making 58.3% hard contact with a 25% barrel rate and just a 16.7% ground ball rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
The slugger draws Padres right hander Randy Vasquez, against whom he owns 57.7% arsenal coverage.
The 27-year-old starter has been giving up plenty of hard contact lately and allowing left-handed hitters to elevate the ball at a high clip. During that stretch, he owns just a 36% ground ball rate allowed, while lefties are making 46% hard contact with a 10% barrel rate against him.
If you are willing to lay roughly -160, you can take Schwarber’s hit prop. But from a value standpoint, I think this is the better play.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSP, Padres.TV
- Prop picks: 158-276-24, +2.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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