We have 11 games on the MLB betting board today and a few of our favorite props are in the early games.
See why I'm backing Rangers right-hander Jack Leiter and Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz with my best free MLB player props for Thursday, April 16.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jack Leiter |
Over 5.5 strikeouts | -110 |
 Yandy Diaz |
Over 1.5 total bases | -105 |
 Parker Messick |
Under 5.5 strikeouts | -106 |
Jack Leiter Over 5.5 strikeouts (-110)
Texas Rangers righty Jack Leiter is coming off a rough outing against the Dodgers elite offense. However, he impressed in his first two starts, striking out eight batters versus Baltimore and fanning nine against Cincinnati.
Leiter is in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate (33.3%) and the 94th percentile in whiff rate (37.3%). He came on strong towards the end of his rookie year in 2025, averaging 10.1 K/9 after the All-Star break.
He should mow down an Athletics lineup that strikes out at the second-highest rate in the majors (27.5%) and ranks 26th in whiff rate (29%)
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC Sports California, Rangers Sports Network
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
The Chicago White Sox will use Jordan Leasure (4.95 xERA) as an opener today with Anthony Kay in a bulk relief role. Kay has a 2.46 ERA but analytics suggest major regression. He's in the fifth percentile in hard-hit rate, and the 10th percentile in xERA (7.26) and xBA (.302).
He'll get roughed up by Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz. Diaz is slashing .369/.468/.569 and has racked up 37 total bases through 17 games. He has the platoon advantage against Kay and there's a 14 mph breeze blowing towards the outfield at Guaranteed Rate Field today.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, Rays.TV
Parker Messick Under 5.5 strikeouts (-106)
Cleveland Guardians southpaw Parker Messick has been extremely impressive but his strikeouts prop looks a tad inflated against the Baltimore Orioles today.
The rookie has gone below 5.5 strikeouts in two of three starts this season. He doesn't have overpowering stuff and his whiff rate is in the 30th percentile. He generates most of his strikeouts due to a high chase rate but Baltimore doesn't chase many pitches.
The Orioles are 21st in the majors in strikeout rate (23.7%) but have trimmed that number to 19.7% over the last week. There's also a chance they get to Messick early since they have a sizzling .796 OPS against lefties.
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEGuardians.TV, MASN
- Prop picks: 2-1, +1.65 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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