Let's kick this week off on a high note!
Monday is filled with pitching props featuring Kyle Freeland, Jameson Taillon, and Payton Tolle, which give us plenty of high-value targets on tonight's betting card.
Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props, best bets, and MLB picks to attack on July 20.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Kyle Freeland |
Over 3.5 earned runs | -108 |
 Jameson Taillon |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -135 |
 Payton Tolle |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | +125 |
Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 earned runs (-108)
Typically, an Over 3.5 runs team total would make me a little nervous, unless it was a team like the Dodgers, but the Washington Nationals are a different story.
Washington gets after early runs, ranking second in first five runs scored while averaging Over three runs through the first five innings.
They draw Colorado Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland, who has been awful all season. The veteran left-hander carries one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate and now has to face a Nationals lineup featuring six elite-rated hitters and one strong-rated hitter based on the current season ratings at Batters-Box.
At home this season, Freeland owns a 6.38 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, while allowing a 40% hard-hit rate and 11% barrel rate.
The Nationals should have a field day in Coors.
I would play this down to -110 at most.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, NATS
Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 earned runs (-135)
It is hard for me to overlook the data here, as Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon draws six elite-rated Detroit Tigers bats while carrying one of the worst pitcher ratings on the day over at Batters-Box.
Taillon has struggled all season long, posting a 7.77 ERA, 6.92 xERA, and 1.64 WHIP. Over his last five starts, he has allowed a 42.67% hard-hit rate and a 16% barrel rate.
The Tigers have been a little cold offensively over their last six games, but I will always lean toward trusting the advanced data and betting on bad pitching being exposed over bad offense.
The wind is blowing out at Wrigley, which could provide some extra help tonight. I know this prop is juicy, so I would not pay much more than the current price.
If the first five team total is available at a better number, I would rather go that route.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, DSN
Payton Tolle Over 6.5 strikeouts (+125)
I may just be drinking the "Payton Tolle is awesome" juice, but I absolutely love him to shove against the Baltimore Orioles this evening.
Sure, Baltimore’s offense has been heating up over the last few days, but its strikeout rate has still been hovering around 30%. The O's also have not fared well against southpaws this season, posting a 26% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.
Over their last 60 at-bats vs. lefties, seven Orioles hitters have posted at least a 21.7% strikeout rate, six are at 25.4% or higher, and three are at least 31%.
There are plenty of strikeouts available in this lineup.
Meanwhile, Tolle has maintained a 30% strikeout rate both at home and over his last three starts.
At +125 for seven strikeouts, I think we are getting excellent value and should be in a great position to cash.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, MASN
- Prop picks: 313-586, -6.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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