It's a new week, and a slate filled with opportunities to back hitters in strong spots against vulnerable arms on Monday, June 8.
This evening, our MLB player props are rolling with Yordan Alvarez, Yandy Diaz, and Willson Contreras, all in matchups that set up well for production.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
Over 1.5 total bases | -112 |
 Yandy Diaz |
Over 1.5 total bases | +102 |
 Willson Contreras |
Over 1.5 total bases | +112 |
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (-112)
Well, well, well, look who we're all over this evening. None other than Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez to go over 1.5 total bases.
The big fella enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box and draws a matchup against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, who has been getting lit up by left-handed hitters this season. Overall, Rodriguez owns an 8.90 xER, while lefties have posted a .458 xwOBA against him. Over the last 60 left-handed batters he's faced, they've produced a 61.1% elevation rate, 47.2% hard-hit rate, and a ridiculous .826 xSLG.
Alvarez has been on a tear all season, but he's been especially dominant against right-handed pitching lately. Over his last 30 plate appearances versus righties, the big fella is batting .417 with a .750 SLG and a 1.283 OPS. He's also generating 55% hard contact and a 15% barrel rate.
Did I mention that Alvarez has gone over this prop in four of his last five elite ratings? Or his 100% arsenal coverage against Rodriguez's entire pitch mix? No? Well, I'm glad I did now.
Paying a little juice for one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball feels well worth it, especially in a matchup against Rodriguez. I'd be willing to play this all the way up to -120 if I have to.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, SCHN
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 total bases (+102)
The Rays veteran draws Boston Red Sox left-hander Connelly Early, who does carry an elite pitcher rating today over on Batters-Box, but so does Diaz on the hitter's side.
He records a hit 72.46% of the time, 2+ hits 34.78% of the time, and has gone over this prop nearly 50% of the time in elite ratings. That is a 69-game sample size. He has also cleared this line in six of his last 10 elite-rated spots.
Early has also been getting hit hard by right-handed bats this season. Over his last 50 batters faced, they have produced nearly a 70% elevation rate, 53.5% hard contact, and an 11.6% barrel rate, while also carrying a sub-.700 xSLG.
Diaz has been rolling against left-handed pitching. In his last 30 at-bats, he is making nearly 90% contact, with 63.6% hard contact and a .938 OPS. On top of that, he owns an 85% arsenal coverage rating against Early’s mix.
Backing a hitter who is making consistent contact and hard contact against a pitcher who has been getting tagged by right-handed bats makes this a strong look. Getting it at plus money only adds to the appeal.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, NESN
Willson Contreras Over 1.5 total bases (+112)
Sticking with this Red Sox vs. Rays matchup, we're backing Willson Contreras to go over his bases as well. The Red Sox veteran owns an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he is backed by some spicy trends.
In 29 elite ratings on the road:
- 1+ Hit: 72.41%
- 2+ Hits: 34.48%
- Double: 27.59%
- Home Run: 27.59%
- 2+ Bases: 51.72%
Contreras has cleared this prop in seven of his last ten elite ratings on the road.
The Rays send out right-hander Mason Englert, who has been getting torched by right-handed hitters this season. At home, it has been especially rough for the 26-year-old. Right-handed hitters are hitting .409 with a .727 SLG and a .507 wOBA, while posting a 72.2% elevation rate. Overall, Englert is allowing 43.2% hard contact and a 16.2% barrel rate to right-handed bats.
Given the matchup and underlying numbers, I would not go much higher than even money on Contreras and would look to grab the best number available.
I'm not shying away from sprinkling on all three of these guys to leave the yard today, and I am taking them straight up in their spots.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, NESN
- Prop picks: 195-342-29, +0.3 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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