It's a big Memorial Day slate on the diamond, with day games sprinkled throughout; there is a lot to take in today.
I'm locked in on two MLB player props this evening, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers offense against an overmatched Colorado Rockies pitching staff.
Read on for my complete MLB picks on Monday, May 25.
Best MLB best bets today
| Player/Team | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 James Wood |
Over 1.5 HRR | -106 |
 Luke Raley |
Over 1.5 HRR | +102 |
 Dodgers |
F5 team total Over 2.5 | -154 |
James Wood Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-106)
I’m never a fan of laying juice on a 1.5 player prop, but for Washington Nationals slugger James Wood, this is a very fair price. I wouldn’t take it much higher than this, so if you can find a boost, use it here. I’m also on his home run. I always pair a homer with any player I’m backing.
The Nationals outfielder draws Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee, who has struggled against left-handed bats this season.
Over the last 60 lefties he has faced, he is allowing a 22.2% ground ball rate, 47.2% fly ball rate, and 30% line drive rate. Those lefties are also making 44% hard contact with an 11.1% barrel rate. Bibee also sports a 0.00 HR/9 during that span. He is playing with fire with the number of hard-hit balls he has been allowing.
Wood has great arsenal coverage against Bibee’s offerings and has been excellent against right-handed pitching over his last 30 plate appearances, owning a .483 wOBA. Overall, he is making 58.3% hard contact while also sporting a 25% barrel rate against right-handed pitchers.
Insane numbers across the board. How could I not be on Mr. Wood this evening in Cleveland?!
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Guardians.TV
Luke Raley Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+102)
Full transparency, I boosted Luke Raley’s hit prop to -103, but if that boost is not available, take the plus money on his hits, runs, and RBI.
The Seattle Mariners outfielder has been seeing the ball extremely well this season, especially on the road, where he owns a .522 SLG, .842 OPS, and 137 wRC+, while making 55.6% hard contact with a 20% barrel rate.
He matches up very well against Athletics right-hander Aaron Civale, who owns the seventh-worst pitcher rating on the day per Batters-Box.
Left-handed hitters have given him the most trouble this season, especially at home, where they are batting .346 with a .519 SLG and .408 wOBA. The 30-year-old starter has also been allowing just a 19% ground ball rate to lefties, while they are elevating the hell out of the baseball, combining for an 80.5% line drive and fly ball rate.
If you can’t get this at plus money, I’d pivot to the Over 1.5 on total bases. In baseball props, I always lean into plus money when it’s there, unless the hit prop is priced really well. If you’re laying around -160 on a hit, that’s still a green light for me
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBC Sports California
Dodgers first-five innings team total Over 2.5 (-154)
Instead of throwing darts trying to decide which of the seven elite-rated Los Angeles Dodgers I wanted to back tonight, I decided to just back the lineup as a whole in the first five innings.
The Dodgers enter with the highest-rated offense on the slate as they take on Colorado Rockies right-hander Tanner Gordon, who owns the worst pitcher rating on the day. Gordon also grades poorly in average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, strikeout percentage, and ground ball rate.
Los Angeles has crushed right-handed pitching at home over its last 12 games, owning a 113 wRC+, .730 OPS, and .328 wOBA, while also carrying a 13.7% walk rate.
Overall, the Dodgers rank second in first-five scoring, averaging nearly three runs in the first five innings per game. Meanwhile, Colorado is allowing the second-most runs in the first five frames at 3.22 per game.
With four elite left-handed bats in the lineup and Gordon allowing 58.8% hard contact with a 23.5% barrel rate to lefties, it is hard for me not to back the Dodgers early tonight.
If you are not a fan of paying juice, take them to go over 3.5 runs at +115. Personally, for that many runs for just a +115 price tag, I am not a fan. You might as well parlay this prop with one of the guys above to record a hit and get yourself plus money that way.
- Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, SportsNet LA
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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