The home run heat is flickering heading into an important Thursday MLB player prop slate, and although there are fewer home run props to look into, there are a handful of spots today that have to be on the card.
Jackson Chourio has a great right-vs-lefty matchup vs. Sean Manaea — who is one of the hardest-hit pitchers over the last 30 days — and Bryce Eldridge has a price in the Bay Area that's too good to pass up.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, Aug. 27.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR | Probability |
|---|---|
 Cole Carrigg |
14% |
 Jackson Chourio |
18% |
 Bryce Eldridge |
12% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 223.19x |
Home run prediction: Cole Carrigg (14%)
- Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run prediction: Jackson Chourio (18%)
I debated this pick with William Contreras at +450ish, but settled on the more probable home run after taking a long shot in the Rockies game.
Sean Manaea gets hit hard by right-handed bats, and Jackson Chourio could see five plate appearances today out of the leadoff spot. With Jake Bauers on the bench, Chourio is the best HR hitter in this lineup, head and shoulders above Brice Turang, who struggles against left-handed pitching.
The Mets starter has allowed 13 home runs across his last 54 innings and five long balls over his last three games, including a trio of homers in his last outing against the White Sox.
He ranks in the Bottom 20 among all MLB starters in HR/9 and HR/FB rate over the last 30 days, along with the third-worst hard-hit rate (HardHit%) at 49.4%.
I would bet this down to +350 and think the Brewers have a Top 3 dinger matchup on the slate today.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Brewers.TV
Home run prediction: Bryce Eldridge (12%)
This is one of the few HRs today showing expected value in Covers' projections. Bryce Eldridge missed the last series to attend his grandfather's funeral, but before that, he was slugging .500 over his previous four series with three homers.
He gets a tasty matchup with Arizona calling up Triple-A starter Jose Cabrera, who has been hit hard in his limited MLB innings, allowing three home runs in 17+ innings while posting a 5.80 ERA at Triple-A this year. He also just gave up three homers and eight runs in his last start for the Reno Aces.
This is a great outlier price, with some books pricing Eldridge around +350 and a fair price closer to +500.
I don't love dingers at Oracle, but Eldridge has hit eight of his 14 homers there this year and is slugging at the same rate at home as he is on the road.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: One National or Two local
- HR picks: 32-166, -13.7 units
Best home run combo for August 27
| Cole Carrigg |
Trade Now 223.19x |
| Jackson Chourio |
|
| Bryce Eldridge |
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Probabilities are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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