The home run heat is flickering heading into an important Thursday MLB player prop slate, and although there are fewer home run props to look into, there are a handful of spots today that have to be on the card.
Jake Irvin is the best starter to target, and Nationals Park is the best setting for dingers today, while Jackson Chourio has a great right-vs-lefty matchup vs. Sean Manaea, who is one of the hardest-hit pitchers over the last 30 days.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, Aug. 27.
MLB home run props for today
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Cole Carrigg
Jackson Chourio
Home run prediction: Cole Carrigg (+680)
- Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run prediction: Jackson Chourio (+390)
I debated this pick with William Contreras at +450ish, but settled on the more probable home run after taking a long shot in the Rockies game.
Sean Manaea gets hit hard by right-handed bats, and Jackson Chourio could see five plate appearances today out of the leadoff spot. With Jake Bauers on the bench, Chourio is the best HR hitter in this lineup, head and shoulders above Brice Turang, who struggles against left-handed pitching.
The Mets starter has allowed 13 home runs across his last 54 innings and five long balls over his last three games, including a trio of homers in his last outing against the White Sox.
He ranks in the Bottom 20 among all MLB starters in HR/9 and HR/FB rate over the last 30 days, along with the third-worst hard-hit rate (HardHit%) at 49.4%.
I would bet this down to +350 and think the Brewers have a Top 3 dinger matchup on the slate today.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Brewers.TV
- HR picks: 32-166, -13.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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