It was back to winning ways yesterday with another 2-1 day to keep the August heat turned up on the pitcher and MLB player props.
It's about time the Brewers slow down Jacob Misiorowski with a big lead in the NL Central, bettors will see the best of Yoshinobu Yamamoto tonight vs. Chris Sale and the Dodgers wins dipping, and finally, I'll show you where you can find a better price when a pitcher's Over 2.5 earned run prop pops to the Over.
These are my favorite strikeout and pitcher props for Thursday, August 27.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player/Team | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jacob Misiorowski |
Under 8.5 strikeouts | -108 |
 Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | +124 |
 Giants first-five team total |
F5 TT Over 2.5 | +124 |
Strikeout prop: Jacob Misiorowski Under 8.5 strikeouts (-108)
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Brewers.TV
Strikeout prop: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 strikeouts (+124)
I'm betting on motivation and a long leash from Yoshinobu Yamamoto today. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in danger of being swept by the Atlanta Braves, something that's already happened three times since the start of July. L.A. needs the best of Yamamoto today, and the matchup against Chris Sale should bring out the best in an elite pitcher who has a track record of thriving in higher-leverage opportunities.
The L.A. starter has a 100-pitch leash and has hit this prop in 50% of his starts since the start of July, while coming off back-to-back nine-strikeout outings. Atlanta is a Top-15 K% matchup, and even if this is slightly below 50% probable, the price is still solid expected value.
I have this around 48% today, putting the fair price at just under even money after accounting for the margin.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, SportsNet Los Angeles
Giants prop: First-five team total Over 2.5 (+124)
I understand this doesn't sound like a pitcher prop, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are starting Triple-A call-up Jose Cabrera, and I want to bet his Over 2.5 earned runs at +117. This is a pitcher with an outs market of 14.5 and isn't expected to sniff the 16th out. So why would I bet +117 and risk the heartbreak of giving up unearned outs when I can get +124 for just runs?
It makes no sense, and that's why you should bet the Giants' first five innings team total Over instead of a bad, short-leashed pitcher Over earned runs. THE BAT is projecting 2.46 earned runs from Cabrera but 2.63 runs for the Giants through the first five innings.
Today's lesson: If you like an Over 2.5 earned runs prop from a bad pitcher who likely isn't going more than five innings, the opposing first-five team total Over is almost always the better option and offers better value.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCS-Bay Area, Dbacks.TV
- Prop picks: 24-20, +6.37 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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