We've got a full slate in front of us, and there are plenty of enticing hitter spots to attack. A few names immediately jumped off the page while digging through today's matchups, and I keep finding myself drawn back to the same trio for our MLB player props.
Jac Caglianone, James Wood, and Alec Burleson all find themselves in favorable spots against pitchers allowing plenty of hard contact and elevated batted balls.
If things break right, these are the types of matchups that can turn into a very profitable evening as we get into the top MLB picks for Friday, June 5.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jac Caglianone |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | +104 |
 James Wood |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | -105 |
 Alec Burleson |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | -104 |
Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (+104)
There is a first time for everything, and this will be the first time I have ever backed future Kansas City Royals star slugger Jac Caglianone.
The former highly touted prospect finds himself in a great spot against Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, who owns some of the worst pitcher ratings in Batters Box. Matthews also carries poorly rated marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact allowed, and ground ball rate. We love pitchers who allow plenty of hard contact and elevated balls.
Matthews has struggled against left-handed hitters this season. Over the last 60 batters faced, lefties have generated a 61.3% elevation rate and 9.7% barrel rate against him, while posting a .451 xSLG and .468 wOBA.
Caglianone owns 70% arsenal coverage against Matthews' entire pitch mix. On top of that, over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he has produced an 80.6% hard-hit rate, a 16.7% barrel rate, and nearly a 40% line-drive rate. During that stretch, his batting average is hovering around .280, but if he continues making this much hard contact, the rest of his numbers should begin to explode.
If you are unable to find his hits, runs, and RBI prop at plus money, I would look toward the over 1.5 total bases. I also think his home run prop is worth a sprinkle. The kid feels overdue for a massive breakout performance at the plate.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Apple TV
James Wood Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Yes, we are all over James Wood once again. Before you get sick of seeing some of my favorite names, let me explain why the Washington Nationals star is due for another big outing.
The big fella draws Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly, who brings a poorly rated matchup ISO to the table this evening. On top of that, Kelly has been getting hammered by left-handed hitters at home. He owns just a 17.1% ground-ball rate against lefties, meaning they're elevating the baseball 82.8% of the time, while they are also making 57.1% hard contact.
Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Wood sports a .463 wOBA and 203 wRC+, while producing 64.3% hard contact and a 28.6% barrel rate. Not to mention, the Nationals star owns the third-highest arsenal coverage among elite-rated hitters tonight. Wood is crushing nearly 87% of Kelly's pitch mix.
Snagging the Nationals' leadoff hitter to record a stolen base at nearly plus money always feels like a gift. That said, I would not pay too much juice for it. Play this up
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ARID, NATS
Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104)
Another hitter I found extremely hard to pass up tonight is Alec Burleson, especially when you look at how much hard contact and elevation Cincinnati Reds starter Brady Singer is allowing. We are all over the St. Louis Cardinals stud this evening.
Singer has not been able to find success against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a 45% hard-hit rate, 13.8% barrel rate, and nearly a 60% elevation rate. Those lefties own a .292 xBA, .531 xSLG, and .380 xwOBA against him. If we zoom in even further, the last 60 left-handed batters he's faced have posted a .406 xBA, .851 xSLG, and .428 xwOBA.
The Cardinals first baseman carries the only elite rating in this matchup over on Batters-Box, boasting an 85.6% arsenal coverage score against Singer's pitch mix. His overall and expected numbers by pitch type are marvelous. Over his last 90 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Burleson owns a .524 SLG while making hard contact at a rate north of 50%.
With how well Burleson matches up against Singer's offerings, coupled with the Reds right-hander allowing lefties to hit above .360 with a .649 SLG on the road, I have to be all over this prop.
As always, sprinkle the home run. I would play this prop up to -110. If you'd rather avoid laying juice, the double and home run markets are worth a look as well.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, CINR
- Prop picks: 185-326-29, +1.10 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
