Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Trout Tackles Tampa

Prop bet #1: Going, going, Gomber

Sometimes you need to be creative to maximize value, and that’s the case with the Austin Gomber odds today. He takes on the Philadelphia Phillies on the road, and his Unders are heavily juiced.

Gomber’s Under 4.5 strikeouts is -140 while his Under 15.5 outs is paying -145. Covers’ player prop projections have the Ks at 3.8 and his outs at just Under 15. At bet365, bettors can SGP both these Unders for +130 odds, which makes taking the -140/-145 a little easier.

The Colorado Rockies lefty is giving up over a hit per inning and is overachieving with 14 Ks through 14-plus innings (three starts). Over his last three seasons, the southpaw has just 295 punchouts across 379 innings.

The Under strikeouts is the better +EV play of the two, but getting into the sixth inning vs. the Phillies will be tough. This lineup ranks fifth in the league in OBP and sees a lot of pitches per plate appearance with a good 11.8% walk rate. That’s going to drive up the pitch count on Gomber and hopefully keep him at 15 or fewer outs. Dating back to last season, the starter has gone Over 15.5 outs in just over 50% of his starts.

His three home runs allowed and eight walks this season over 14-plus innings are also good indicators of a pitcher who can get the hook from a poor outing as well as drive the pitch count up with a lack of swing-and-miss stuff. If you don’t have bet365, the Under 4.5 strikeouts is a solid +EV alone. 

Austin Gomber prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts + Under 15.5 outs (+130 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Calling on Carlos

There might be a sour taste in the mouth of Carlos Rodon odds bettors following last year, but tonight he is +110 to get 16 or more outs vs. a weak Toronto Blue Jays offense. Following back-to-back Overs on this prop in his last two starts, the plus-money play is making the card today.

Rodon has thrown 89 and 95 pitches, respectively, over his last two turns where he recorded a respective 16 and 18 outs. He’s walked seven batters over 15-plus innings and still has gotten deep for the New York Yankees. If he can cut down on the free passes, 18 outs is in the cards today.

The Jays hit lefties better than righties, but overall, this is still a league-average offense at best where George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vlad Guerrero are hitting a combined .206. Toronto is scoring runs at the 23rd-best rate in baseball and not knocking starting pitching out early, as seven of the eight starting pitchers they’ve seen have gone at least 15 outs.

Rodon is just two seasons removed from being one of the best pitchers in baseball. At plus money with a pitch count that is projected in the mid-90s and Covers’ player prop projections sitting at 16.1 outs, the plus-money Over is in the account. 

Carlos Rodon prop: Over 15.5 outs (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Tailing Trout

Mike Trout is tied for the MLB home run lead at seven, ranks in the Top 5 in slugging at .710, and 56% of his hits have gone for two bases or more. He is having a hell of a season for the Los Angeles Angels and is currently the No. 4 betting favorite in the AL MVP odds at +900. He’s also +125 for Over 1.5 bases today and that’s a price I’m not passing up in the Mike Trout odds.

He’ll face Aaron Civale of the Tampa Bay Rays today and is 1-for-3 lifetime vs. him with one home run. Civale has authored a sub-1.00 WHIP but is also pitching well above every projection, meaning some regression is to be expected. Even if Civale gets through Trout clean, the Tampa bullpen has been awful to begin the year, ranking last in WAR and ERA.

There are plenty of avenues for two bases for Trout tonight, and with guys like Aaron Judge at even money for 2+ bases, Trout’s Over 1.5 bags at +125 still projects +EV despite the big name. The Covers’ player prop projections sitting at 2.17 TBs. 

Mike Trout prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)