I started the week with a 2-1 SU day and am looking to run back a couple of angles again today in what is the biggest getaway day of the week. There is still lots of rain so make sure to check the forecast before digging into the slate.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Wednesday, May 21.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 21
Walker to record win (+180)
Gausman u17.5 outs (+145)
Megill u4.5 hits allowed (-120)
Today's SP best bets
Phillies vs. Rockies
The angle: Walker can pitch more than expected and the Rockies really are this bad
The move: Taijuan Walker to record win (+180 at bet365)
There is some risk in this one but at this price, vs. this Colorado Rockies lineup, I can’t say no. The Philadelphia Phillies were -300 on the ML yesterday and Jesus Luzardo was paying -105 to record the win. It was a steal, as the Rockies were trailing by two runs after just seven pitches.
The concern here is Taijuan Walker getting to 15 outs to be in line for the win. If he can get there, this is a layup vs. the Rockies bullpen. He has an out market at 14.5 that is leaning to the Over while THE BAT is projecting just 12.4 outs here. However, the projections are a little high on the Rockies at home and it’s understandable as no team should be this bad — but they are.
Walker is coming from the bullpen where he last pitched on May 14 and threw 59 pitches. A pitch count of 75-80 is a conservative projection but he could get more. If Philly is leading, they also might send him out to get the 15th out and a win. He was up to 99 pitches before moving to the pen.
Padres vs. Blue Jays
The angle: Gausman's K% isn't returning to his 2023 rates and is coming off a season-high in pitches
The move: Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 outs (+145 at bet365)
The Toronto Blue Jays starter has a tough task today vs. the San Diego Padres and he enters tonight in poor form. Kevin Gausman has gone Under this number in back-to-back starts and in three of his last four. He is coming off a 17-out performance where he also gave up three long balls.
He also threw a season-high 101 pitches and has a 6.66 ERA over his last five games. He might need to work on his efficiency and throwing beyond 95 pitches hasn’t been helping.
His K% over the last two seasons has also taken a nosedive as he was a 31.1% K% pitcher in 2023 but fell to 21% last season and sits at 22% this year.
Mets vs. Red Sox
The angle: There could be some head-hunting in this game
The move: Tylor Megill Under 4.5 hits allowed (-120 at BetMGM)
The Walker Buehler ejection has changed the landscape of this game. He's making posts on X and IG about getting back at Francisco Lindor, who was calling for the Boston Red Sox pitcher to get tossed.
So how does this affect Tylor Megill? He was already projecting +EV for this Under 4.5 hits at 4.23, per THE BAT, but there could be some HBPs today.
If the Red Sox (Garrett Crochet) retaliate, Megill might have to answer, which could get him tossed if warnings are thrown out. This ejection is not priced into THE BAT’s numbers, so it is just some added value.
There is also a chance of rain, which could abbreviate Megill’s outing, and the wind is blowing in. This should help our MLB picks if this turns out to be an unaffected start.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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