We have a jam-packed day of baseball ahead of us, headlined by seven games on the night slate — including four totals of 8.5 or more.
That should be good news for the hitters. Let’s look at a few MLB player props worth looking at on May 21.
Best MLB player props today
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Machado o1.5 HRR (-130) -
Varsho o1.5 HRR (-115) -
Suarez o1.5 HRR (-115)
MLB props for May 21
Manny Machado Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-130 at DraftKings)
Manny Machado is a HRR machine and headlines my MLB picks for this evening.
He's cleared 1.5 in 74% of his games this season and 77% when playing on the road, including nine of the last 10. Machado enters play riding a four-game dry spell but has a great matchup to get back on track against Kevin Gausman.
Gausman has struggled against right-handed hitters this season, conceding a higher average than vs. lefties while allowing a 13.2% barrel rate.
Machado is hitting over .300 against right-handed pitchers and has excelled against the four-seam and splitter — by far Gausman’s two most utilized pitches. Isolating those two pitches, Machado has a .356 expected batting average and ridiculous 31.8% barrel rate.
Given how well Machado profiles against Gausman’s go-to pitches, it’s no surprise he's taken him yard twice over just 17 plate appearances. Look for his head-to-head success to continue tonight.
Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-115 at bet365)
Padres starter Randy Vasquez owns miserable numbers against left-handed hitters. He’s allowed a .276 batting average, .818 OPS, and 15.6% barrel rate, all drastically worse than when facing righties.
Conversely, Daulton Varsho has fared much better against RHP than southpaws, and is effective against much of what Vasquez throws.
Varsho owns a .915 OPS and 61.1% hard-hit rate against Vasquez’s three most-used pitches: the cutter, four-seam, and sinker. His contact rate (78%) and fly ball rate (44%) against those pitches are also well above average.
He's swung rather freely against them and for good reason, consistently generating a ton of power while making contact at a high clip. In such an enticing matchup, it might only take one good swing for Varsho to clear this number.
Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-115 at bet365)
Dustin May has struggled mightily against right-handed hitters this season, and his numbers are getting progressively worse. He owns a 5.54 xERA and 1.003 OPS against righties over the last month.
His go-to pitches are the sinker and four-seam fastball, which play into the hands of Eugenio Suarez. He owns a .308 xBA, 1.025 OPS, and 71.7% hard-hit rate against righties throwing those two pitches. Insane metrics.
Suarez faced May earlier this season and went 1-for-3 with a home run in that battle. This should be another productive outing given how well Suarez hits against May’s most prominent pitches.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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