Shohei Ohtani is an unstoppable force, and he’ll like his matchup tonight as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks. My MLB player props analysis will dive into exactly why Ohtani could go deep for the 18th time this season.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Brent Rooker will also be included in my picks for Wednesday, May 21.
Best MLB home run props today
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Ohtani 1+ HR (+210) -
Tatis Jr. 1+ HR (+285) -
Rooker 1+ HR (+360)
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HR picks for May 21
Shohei Ohtani 1+ home runs (+210 at DraftKings)
Shohei Ohtani is now unsurprisingly tied for the MLB lead in homers at 17 alongside Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber. The reigning NL MVP is absolutely raking as well, hitting .311 with 31 RBI.
The 30-year-old has five long balls in his last five games, and just went deep in the series opener against the Diamondbacks on Monday. In fact, he already has three bombs in only six games versus Arizona this season.
Tonight, the Dodgers face Corbin Burnes, and that typically means success for Ohtani. He’s 4-for-8 lifetime with a long ball in this matchup.
Of Ohtani’s 17 homers this year, 10 have come at Dodger Stadium. The slugger has also done nearly all of his damage vs. righties, taking them deep 15 times in 2025.
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ home runs (+285 at DraftKings)
The San Diego Padres are playing well, and Fernando Tatis Jr. is a big reason behind it.
He’s batting .303 so far with 12 home runs and he’s really found his power over the last couple of weeks. Tatis Jr. has left the yard four times in his last nine games and is enjoying a four-game hitting streak at the moment.
The 26-year-old will love tonight’s matchup. The Toronto Blue Jays send Kevin Gausman to the bump, and Tatis Jr. has made his life a nightmare, going 8-for-17 lifetime with a pair of home runs. That’s a .471 average.
Needless to say, Tatis feels confident when Gausman is pitching against him.
Also, 11 of his long balls are off right-handed hurlers. Tatis Jr. has a real chance of going deep in tonight’s rubber match in Toronto.
Brent Rooker 1+ home runs (+360 at DraftKings)
When you look at the Athletics roster, there aren’t a lot of bright spots. But Brent Rooker is one.
The 30-year-old has proven over the last couple of years that he’s one of the best power threats in the sport, slugging 30 homers in 2023 and 39 in 2024.
As for this season, he’s off to a bit of a slow start, batting .241 with 10 long balls in 49 games. He hasn’t homered in nine games, but I believe that could change tonight.
The L.A. Angels hand Jack Kochanowicz the baseball, and Rooker is 2-for-2 lifetime against him with a bomb.
Sutter Health Park in Sacramento is hitter-friendly, and four of Rooker’s homers have been at home. Kochanowicz has also allowed seven homers in nine starts this year and in four of his last six outings.
My MLB picks believe Rooker will be feeling confident at the dish.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs (+550)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+600)
- Jake Meyers, Astros (+850)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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