Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

Caley's prediction: Diamondbacks jump on Dodgers early.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
May 21, 2025 • 15:06 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Diamondbacks pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) pitches against the Dodgers during a game at Chase Field on May 10.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Diamondbacks pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) pitches against the Dodgers during a game at Chase Field on May 10.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers have given us a thrilling series so far.

The D-backs took the opener 9-5, before the Dodgers responded with a dramatic walk-off win in the bottom of the 10th last night.

The rubber match goes in Chavez Ravine tonight with Corbin Burnes toeing the rubber against Dustin May and while my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers predictions give an edge in pitching to Arizona, L.A. will prove to be a tough out.

Check out my MLB picks for the finale of this epic National League West showdown with first pitch set to go at Dodger Stadium at 10:10 pm ET, on Wednesday, May 21.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers prediction

My Diamondbacks vs Dodgers best bet: Diamondbacks -0.5 — first five innings (+140 at bet365)

It looked like the Arizona Diamondbacks were going to take a 2-0 series lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers after Corbin Carroll hit a go-ahead two-run home run in the top of the 10th inning last night.

But Shelby Miller couldn’t hold onto the lead, and a Max Muncy sacrifice fly scored Shohei Ohtani to give the Dodgers the 4-3 win.

Wednesday’s series finale will be full of intrigue as the Diamondbacks hand the ball to ace Corbin Burnes, while the Dodgers counter with Dustin May

Burnes’ tenure with the D-backs got off to a rocky start, but the former Cy Young award winner is starting to settle in with his new team and looks like his old self.

The 30-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 0.74 ERA while limiting opponents to a .167 batting average and striking out 26 batters in 24 1/3 innings pitched over his last four starts. That includes shutting out this same Dodgers team over seven innings on just five hits when they last met back on May 10.

And the Dodgers won’t be happy to see Burnes again so soon. Current L.A. batters have a combined .208 expected batting average and a .299 expected slugging vs. Burnes.

Meanwhile, May has been in a bit of a slump. The 27-year-old right-hander has seen his ERA balloon to 6.51 while surrendering an .881 OPS over his last five starts. Now, he did pitch well against the D-backs in that same May 10 meeting, but it's hard not to have more confidence in Burnes in this matchup.

Despite this, the Dodgers are still favored in this matchup because, well, they’re the Dodgers. And the longer a game goes, the more chances their ridiculous lineup has to score. So, let’s limit those chances and give me the D-backs to ride the hot arm of Burnes here and carry a lead at least through five innings.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)

Diamondbacks -0.5 — first five innings

Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases

Corbin Burnes Over 4.5 hits allowed

While not many Dodgers have had success against Burnes in the past, surprise, surprise, you can’t include Shohei Ohtani on that list.

Ohtani, who scored the game-winning run last night, enters tonight’s game hitting .317 with a 1.074 OPS. He’s also 4-for-8 in his career vs. Burnes with a dinger. That’s good for a .471 xBA and a .737 xBA. Let’s add Over 1.5 total bases for Ohtani. Something he’s done in 16 of his last 19 games overall.

And this is still the Dodgers we are talking about. One of the best lineups in baseball. Burnes can scatter five hits in this game and still be successful. Just like he was when they last met on May 10. 

A hits allowed prop of 4.5 is just a touch low, and taking the Over will mess with the same-game parlay algorithm nicely.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers live odds

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers opening odds

  • Moneyline: Arizona +110 | Los Angeles -130
  • Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-165) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: Over 9.0 | Under 9.0

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers trend

The Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games for +5.95 Units and a 16% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Dodgers and game info

Location Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date Wednesday, 5-21-2025
First pitch 10:10 p.m. ET
TV ARID, SportsNet Los Angeles
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Corbin Burnes
(3-1, 2.56 ERA)
Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin May
(1-4, 4.43 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers latest injuries

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Andrew Caley
Senior Betting Analyst

When his dreams of becoming the next Steve Nash died, all Andrew "Taco" Caley wanted to do was write about sports, something he's been doing at Covers for more than a decade. A Journalism School grad from Holland College in Charlottetown, PEI, Andrew previously worked at The Chronicle Herald and Star Metro, but knew in his heart that his future lay in sports. He began at Covers as a news editor and has now done everything under the sun when it comes to content. His work has been seen on TSN, Sportsnet, VSiN, and CBS. These days Andrew's betting expertise is focused on his favorite teams; the Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He's also an avid college football fan and bettor. He can't be friends with you if you don't appreciate a Service Academy Under. You can also call him Covers Sixth Man, as he regularly steps up to guest host Before You Bet and our MLB and NCAAF release shows. The sportsbook where he does the bulk of his betting is bet365 thanks to its numerous prop betting options and competitive odds. His best advice? Find the balance between the numbers and what you see on the playing field. Then find the best price using multiple books. And don’t ask him where the nickname Taco comes from. It's not an interesting story. Seriously.<

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