The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers have given us a thrilling series so far.
The D-backs took the opener 9-5, before the Dodgers responded with a dramatic walk-off win in the bottom of the 10th last night.
The rubber match goes in Chavez Ravine tonight with Corbin Burnes toeing the rubber against Dustin May and while my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers predictions give an edge in pitching to Arizona, L.A. will prove to be a tough out.
Check out my MLB picks for the finale of this epic National League West showdown with first pitch set to go at Dodger Stadium at 10:10 pm ET, on Wednesday, May 21.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers prediction
My Diamondbacks vs Dodgers best bet: Diamondbacks -0.5 — first five innings (+140 at bet365)
It looked like the Arizona Diamondbacks were going to take a 2-0 series lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers after Corbin Carroll hit a go-ahead two-run home run in the top of the 10th inning last night.
But Shelby Miller couldn’t hold onto the lead, and a Max Muncy sacrifice fly scored Shohei Ohtani to give the Dodgers the 4-3 win.
Wednesday’s series finale will be full of intrigue as the Diamondbacks hand the ball to ace Corbin Burnes, while the Dodgers counter with Dustin May.
Burnes’ tenure with the D-backs got off to a rocky start, but the former Cy Young award winner is starting to settle in with his new team and looks like his old self.
The 30-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 0.74 ERA while limiting opponents to a .167 batting average and striking out 26 batters in 24 1/3 innings pitched over his last four starts. That includes shutting out this same Dodgers team over seven innings on just five hits when they last met back on May 10.
And the Dodgers won’t be happy to see Burnes again so soon. Current L.A. batters have a combined .208 expected batting average and a .299 expected slugging vs. Burnes.
Meanwhile, May has been in a bit of a slump. The 27-year-old right-hander has seen his ERA balloon to 6.51 while surrendering an .881 OPS over his last five starts. Now, he did pitch well against the D-backs in that same May 10 meeting, but it's hard not to have more confidence in Burnes in this matchup.
Despite this, the Dodgers are still favored in this matchup because, well, they’re the Dodgers. And the longer a game goes, the more chances their ridiculous lineup has to score. So, let’s limit those chances and give me the D-backs to ride the hot arm of Burnes here and carry a lead at least through five innings.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Diamondbacks -0.5 — first five innings
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
Corbin Burnes Over 4.5 hits allowed
While not many Dodgers have had success against Burnes in the past, surprise, surprise, you can’t include Shohei Ohtani on that list.
Ohtani, who scored the game-winning run last night, enters tonight’s game hitting .317 with a 1.074 OPS. He’s also 4-for-8 in his career vs. Burnes with a dinger. That’s good for a .471 xBA and a .737 xBA. Let’s add Over 1.5 total bases for Ohtani. Something he’s done in 16 of his last 19 games overall.
And this is still the Dodgers we are talking about. One of the best lineups in baseball. Burnes can scatter five hits in this game and still be successful. Just like he was when they last met on May 10.
A hits allowed prop of 4.5 is just a touch low, and taking the Over will mess with the same-game parlay algorithm nicely.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers live odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +110 | Los Angeles -130
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-165) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 | Under 9.0
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers trend
The Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games for +5.95 Units and a 16% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-21-2025 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ARID, SportsNet Los Angeles |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Corbin Burnes (3-1, 2.56 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Dustin May (1-4, 4.43 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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