I’m hitting a trio of plus-money MLB props today and using Covers’ prop projections as a tool to find me the best +EV plays on a Tuesday slate.
Today, I’m betting on Manuel Margot's struggles at the dish continue, another dud from Reid Detmers, and buying some Sonny Gray shares as his short leash isn’t always priced in.
Here are my three favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, May 14.
MLB props for May 14
- Manuel Margot Under 0.5 hits (+170 at bet365)
- Reid Detmers Under 17.5 outs (+120 at bet365)
- Sonny Gray Under 1.5 ERs (+140 at bet365)
Picks made on 5-14 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Money Margot
We released Manuel Margot Under 0.5 hits on the Covers’ MLB Prop Picks show powered by THE BAT at +170 and it’s worth highlighting again.
Margot will face New York Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon, who has been up and down this year but is still giving up less than a hit per inning and might not see Margot a third time. That’s why THE BAT has the right-handed hitter at more than 60% pinch-hit risk, which is one of the bigger ones of the day.
On top of the pinch-hit risk, Margot is just not a great hitter as he has just four hits over his last 14 games (seven starts) and is hitting .171 on the year and .136 vs. right-handed pitching, with which the New York bullpen is loaded.
THE BAT has this winning at over 50% today and at +170, making it one of the best +EV on a Tuesday board that isn’t showing a ton of value.
Manuel Margot prop: Under 0.5 hits (+170 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Reid Dudmers
Over his last four starts, Los Angeles Angels lefty Reid Detmers has allowed a whopping 22 earned runs across 22+ innings. The lefty is struggling mightily and his Under 17.5 outs at +115 looks like the best way to fade the pitcher.
Everything is going wrong for Detmers, who has nine walks over those 22+ innings as well as seven home runs allowed. The control is an issue and guys are tagging him hard. His spin rate is down over his last three starts and the 34 hits allowed over his last 28 innings combined with the uptick in walks are running up his pitch count.
He has had a decent leash during these struggles but there is a chance the Angels keep him shorter today with the recent results. The Covers’ prop projection is 15.69 outs while THE BAT is projecting 93 pitches. There are plenty of avenues where the lefty doesn’t see 90 pitches today.
The St. Louis Cardinals don’t hit southpaws hard, but they do have the fourth-lowest K% vs. LHP and walk at an above-average rate, which means longer at-bats and higher pitch counts.
Reid Detmers prop: Under 17.5 outs (+120 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Gray skies to blue
Life hasn’t been great for the Halos this year and it’s been even worse without Mike Trout. Over the last 10 games, this offense has scored two or fewer runs in 50% of their games and their 88 wRC+ this month ranks in the bottom third of the league.
Sonny Gray has a great matchup vs. them today and is paying a solid +140 on his Under 1.5 earned run market. There’s a lot to like about Gray in this spot other than just facing a weak offense.
He is coming off a rough outing vs. the Brewers but has also had three scoreless starts over six turns this season. He is also a pitcher with a short leash, which isn’t always priced in. He has yet to throw more than 94 pitches this year and THE BAT is projecting just 88 pitches from the veteran right-hander.
Despite that tough start, Gray still looks like a front-end pitcher with elite K% and BB% numbers as well as just 28 hits allowed over 35+ innings. This play will lose more often than it wins, but at +140, that’s a solid value at 48%, which this projects as.
Sonny Gray prop: Under 1.5 earned runs (+140 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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