Oneil Cruz has performed much better at PNC Park than on the road this season.
That trend should continue today as my Reds vs. Pirates predictions see Cruz’s power coming to light in a juicy matchup against Brady Singer.
Let’s break it all down with my MLB picks on Thursday, August 7.
Reds vs Pirates prediction
Reds vs Pirates best bet: Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)
Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz has drastic home/road splits. He’s cleared 1.5 bases in 41% of his home games compared to just 29% on the road.
He has the luxury of playing in Pittsburgh tonight against an exploitable pitcher. Cincinnati Reds SP Brady Singer has allowed a .260 average, .200 ISO, and 1.40 WHIP against left-handed bats this season.
He’s allowed 2.5 earned runs per start, a number that has soared to 3.1 when isolating road games.
Singer has had a tough time slowing Cruz down, albeit over a small sample. The outfielder is 2-for-5 with a walk against Singer to date.
Cruz’s success is not surprising given that he profiles well against Singer’s pitching arsenal. In particular, Singer’s tendency to lean on the sinker plays into the slugger's hands.
Cruz owns a .286 average and just a 13.6 K% when isolating sinkers thrown by right-handed pitchers this season.
There is no doubting Cruz's speed or power, and seeing how he performs much better on home soil and excels against Singer’s go-to pitch, he'll make some noise today.
Reds vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 total bases
Paul Skenes Over 17.5 outs recorded
Pirates -1.5
Paul Skenes has been almost untouchable this season, especially when playing in Pittsburgh. He has allowed 1.3 earned runs per start and has given up just two runs – yes, total – over his last six home games.
He is consistently pitching deep into games, and there’s no reason to expect any different against the Reds, who rank 25th in wOBA vs. righties since July 1.
If Cruz has a quality offensive performance and Skenes continues neutering opposing offenses, the Pirates have a strong chance of winning with room to spare.
Reds vs Pirates odds
Reds vs Pirates live odds
Reds vs Pirates opening odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +150 | Pittsburgh -180
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-140) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Reds vs Pirates trend
Oneil Cruz has averaged 1.89 total bases over his last nine games against Cincinnati. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Pirates.
How to watch Reds vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Thursday, August 7, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network, FanDuel Sports Network-Ohio, SNP |
| Reds starting pitcher | Brady Singer (9-8, 4.36 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Paul Skenes (6-8, 2.02 ERA) |
Reds vs Pirates latest injuries
Reds vs Pirates weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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