It’s a light day on the diamond with just four big league games, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the MLB player props market.
My favorites include the Pirates finally providing Paul Skenes with a little production, just from an underrated source. Meanwhile, picking Kyle Stowers to drive in a run against Carlos Carrasco is one of the most straightforward bets I’ve made in a while.
Those and more on Thursday, August 7.
Best MLB player props today
Smith u14.5 outs (+130)
Kiner-Falefa o1.5 H+R+RBI (+120)
Stowers o0.5 RBI (+170)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Thursday, August 7
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Shane Smith Under 14.5 Outs (+130 at FanDuel)
The Chicago White Sox have been a little better in the second half, but are just 18-40 on the road this season and trying to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the Seattle Mariners.
White Sox right-hander Shane Smith has shown some promise but battles command too often and is stuck in a slump.
The 25-year-old ranks in the 18th percentile in walk rate, so when he loses his command, he starts grooving fastballs, and as a result, ranks in the Bottom 21% in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Smith owns a 4.42 expected ERA, which ranks in the 29th percentile among MLB pitchers, and it’s been a struggle in the second half, as he boasts a 9.93 ERA over six starts since the All-Star break - a stretch where he's failed to finish the fifth inning each time.
Now, he faces a Mariners lineup that loaded up at the trade deadline by adding Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor to an offense that already features Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Jorge Polanco.
Smith also has a reasonably short leash, averaging 80.4 pitches per start, and that’s down to 74 in the second half. With his recent struggles and a tough matchup, my MLB picks are taking the Under 14.5 outs recorded at nice plus money.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, RSNW
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+120 at BetMGM)
It was a tough first half of the season for Paul Skenes in the sense that he was roughly pitching to a 2.00 ERA and had just four wins to show for it.
But the Pittsburgh Pirates have given their young phenom a little more support in the second half, and he’s earned two more wins in just three starts since the All-Star break. I’m betting that production continues tonight against the Cincinnati Reds.
Super-utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been a big part of that increase in production. He’s hitting .323 with a .710 OPS, seven runs scored, and six RBI over his last eight games.
Now, the Reds have a lot of good starting pitching, but Brady Singer isn’t really a part of that equation. The veteran right-hander ranks in the 33rd percentile in expected ERA and the 37th in opponent expected batting average.
IKF also has the most experience vs. Singer from their time in the American League, going 6-for-14 (.429) in 17 career plate appearances.
I love getting plus money with IKF to go Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI in tonight’s matchup, something he’s done in six of his last seven games.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FDSN Ohio, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 RBI (+170 at DraftKings)
Kyle Stowers has been one of the best sluggers in baseball this season, and the Atlanta Braves are starting the husked-out shell of Carlos Carrasco.
Give me Stowers to get an RBI at awesome plus money.
Need more?
OK, for starters, Stowers is the Miami Marlins breakout star of 2025 (which means his time in Miami is probably close to done. Sorry Marlins fans). He’s hit 25 home runs with 71 RBI while ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage.
Meanwhile, Carrasco’s first start with the Braves was more of what we’ve come to expect from the aging right-hander. He was lucky to allow just three runs on seven hits and two walks in six innings against the Reds.
In nine appearances this season, he ranks in the Bottom 20% in expected ERA and expected opponent batting average.
So, like I said, straightforward. Bet Stowers to drive in a run and don’t look back.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FDSN Florida, FDSN South
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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