In a Rockies-esque effort, the afternoon pitcher props have been nothing short of horrific this week, but I’m hoping tonight's smaller three-game late slate will ease the early-August pain.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Thursday, August 7.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 7
Perez o1.5 walks allowed (-135)
Singer u1.5 walks allowed (+135)
Skenes u17.5 outs (+135)
Marlins vs. Braves
The angle: Nobody is walking more than the Braves
The move: Eury Perez Over 1.5 walks allowed (-135 at DraftKings)
No team is walking more over the last two weeks than the Atlanta Braves at a high 11.9% - nearly two full points ahead of the next-best team. That’s going to mean some more free passes from Miami Marlins RHP Eury Perez today on the road.
Perez has 18 walks over 10 starts this year and has hit 2+ walks in seven, including 3+ walks three times. His Over 1.5 walks is a tough ask to buy at -135, but considering it’s as short as -165 in other places, this is a good buy.
If you’re looking for something bigger, his 3+ walks is +255. I don’t like laddering plays where the first rung is heavily taxed, so I’m just putting the o1.5 BBA at -135 in the account.
Reds vs. Pirates
The angle: Singer could be past some earlier command issues
The move: Brady Singer Under 1.5 walks allowed (+135 at bet365)
The Cincinnati Reds have a great matchup today vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Jon Metler has already talked me into the Reds moneyline, in part thanks to Brady Singer.
The Reds’ starter has been missing bats of late and absolutely filling the zone. In his last four starts, he has 28 Ks to just five walks and has gone Under this prop in four of his last five.
His pricing is based a lot on some early command issues that might have been corrected. It’s a great day for pitching in Pittsburgh with the winds blowing in at nine mph. THE BAT projects for 1.65, and my MLB picks would buy this to +115.
Reds at Pirates
The angle: Great pitcher with a shorter leash the longer the season goes
The move: Paul Skenes Under 17.5 outs (+135 at BetMGM)
Paul Skenes has failed to get 18 outs in five of his last seven starts and has hit 95+ pitches just once over those seven games dating back to June 25.
His leash is always in question as long as he is working for the Pirates, and the plus money is the key, as the projection is around 94 pitches and 17.01 outs, which I’d put closer to the ceiling than his floor.
Punching people out is not the most efficient way of pitching, and Skenes’ pitch count can rise despite not getting himself into a lot of trouble.
I also don't hate the Under 17.5 outs + Over 7.5 Ks at +460 at DraftKings.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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