Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Go With Bo on Opening Day

Prop bet #1: The Luzardo King

Jesus Luzardo gets an easy Opening Day assignment today vs. the Pirates who project as one of the worst offenses in baseball. It’s also a game with the lowest total of the slate at a flat 7.0. Jesus Luzardo odds have his outs market at 14.5 paying -125 to the Over at bet365, and with most books around -150 and THE BAT projecting 16 outs, this was the first bet put into my account.

The 14.5 total is a funny number as it's in the middle of an inning. If the lefty starts the fifth there's a very good chance he finishes the frame for 15 total outs. Even if his pitch count is low, 15 innings is the bar and a number he hit last year in his opening game over just 76 pitches.

With Sandy Alcantara also out for the year, there's been lots of talk about Luzardo wanting to get more efficient and go longer into games. That sounds good to me.

Jesus Luzardo prop: Over 14.5 total outs (-125 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Backing Bo's bat

The Toronto Blue Jays lineup will look a little different this year as John Schneider has moved Vlad Guerrero Jr. into the No. 2 spot while Bo Bichette is the No. 3 hitter — giving him more opportunities to knock in a run. Bo Bichette's odds surrounding his RBI market have a price of +215 at bet365 to register one, with some books as low as +185.

The Jays will see Zach Eflin early in this game at the Trop and no hitter in this lineup has a great track record vs. him over a small sample size, however, Eflin is coming off a career year that might be hard to replicate and he wasn't sharp in the Spring.

The right hander allowed 17 runs over three games, including a five-pack of long balls over 11 2/3 innings. One of those starts was vs. the Jays who had eight hits and eight runs over four innings.

He last pitched on the 23rd which puts him on exactly five days, but I wouldn't expect a long leash from a club that has a notoriously short one for its starters. It’s a great table-setting lineup for Bichette who could see runners in scoring position as early as his first at bat as both George Springer and Vlad can get extra bases by themselves.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this prop slowly migrate to the +150 range if Bichette keeps hitting in the three hole. 

Bo Bichette prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+215 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Visual learners

Fading the Colorado Rockies away from Coors Field is always a convincing bet. Their total offensive numbers get skewed because of their splits which gives value to their Unders away and Overs at home. Only the Royals scored fewer runs on the road per game than Colorado last season at 3.65. 

This offense also sees different pitching at home than on the road as balls move differently in the mountains. Look into Visual Memory Index as to what it is and why betting against the Rockies on the first game of a roadtrip can be profitable. 

Tonight vs. Zac Gallen, who finished third in NL Cy Young voting a season ago, this offense is in trouble on Opening Day. 

There isn't a lot of projected pop in this lineup outside of Nolan Jones, and stringing together hits vs. Gallen and eventually a bullpen that is expected to outperform last year’s numbers is a tough ask on Day 1.

Gallen’s Over 5.5 strikeouts look like an elite play from THE BAT which is projecting close to seven punchouts, but that’s also correlating to the team total Under for the Rockies and the price is getting steep at -165.

Pinnacle has the best team total prices and the Unde 3.5 is -130 which are the best odds by far. But even bet365’s -140 is playable and the Under 2.5 team total at +130 is worth a look as well.

This is an offense with boring veterans in Kris Bryant and Charlie Blackmon mixed in with a ton of young talent that might finish the year with decent numbers, but likely not on the road. 

Colorado Rockies  prop: team total Under 3.5 (-130 at Pinnacle)