Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst 16+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 10, 2026 , 08:36 AM ET • 4 min read

Parker's prediction: Cubbies cash in on statistical correction at the dish to win third straight.

MLB

Match starts: 4 hrs
PIT
47 %
CHC
53 %
EXPERT PICK - MONEYLINE
Chi. Cubs -140 Chi. Cubs -140
Read Analysis
Chicago Cubs MLB Seiya Suzuki.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki.

The Chicago Cubs will look to improve their winning streak to three games when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates in an NL Central clash at Wrigley Field on Friday, April 10.

My top Pirates vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks expect Chicago to pull off the victory, with the total going Over the number this afternoon.

Who will win Pirates vs Cubs today: Cubs moneyline (-140)

The Chicago Cubs will receive a boost with Seiya Suzuki making his season debut this afternoon, and the Cubbies have also been on the unlucky side to start the year.

Chicago ranks second in hard-hit rate and sixth in barrel percentage, so positive regression to a 25th-ranked BABIP is coming.

Additionally, Pittsburgh Pirates righty Carmen Mlodzinski has surrendered a 68.0% hard-hit rate through two starts, and three of his five offerings have negative pitch values.

Chicago starter Shota Imanga is also eyeing statistical correction with his 4.50 ERA above his 3.03 xERA and 3.48 xFIP.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Seiya Suzuki was third in wOBA on the Cubs in 2025, and he posted a monster .467 mark during his five-game rehab stint.

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Pirates vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 6.5 (-113)

The wind is forecasted to be blowing in at the Friendly Confines, but Chicago isn’t truly going to live up to its Windy City moniker. 

As noted, the Cubs are positioned to have a breakout day at the dish, and have scored 24 runs across their past four games.

And, while Imanga has solid underlying numbers, the Pirates can also do damage.

Pittsburgh has a deeper and more potent lineup than in years past and ranks seventh in wOBA against lefties to start the season.

Neil Parker's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 3-4, -0.99 units
  • Over/Under bets: 1-2, -1.2 units

Pirates vs Cubs odds

  • Moneyline: Pirates +133 | Cubs -138
  • Run line: Pirates +1.5 (-156) | Cubs -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-113) | Under 6.5 (+108)

Pirates vs Cubs trend

The Cubs have covered the run line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+7.25 Units / 43% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs.

How to watch Pirates vs Cubs and game info

Location Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date Friday, April 10, 2026
First pitch 2:20 p.m. ET
TV SportsNet Pittsburgh, Marquee
Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski
(0-0, 4.00 ERA)
Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga
(0-1, 4.50 ERA)

Pirates vs Cubs latest injuries

Pirates vs Cubs weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

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