Game 2 of the ALCS is almost here, and so are my three favorite Guardians vs. Rays prop picks for tonight's matchup.
Be sure to keep up with all of my MLB picks for Tuesday, Oct. 13.
Best Guardians vs Rays props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jonathan Aranda 2+ Hits, runs, RBI |
45% |
| Junior Caminero 2+ Hits, runs, RBI |
53% |
 Patrick Bailey 1+ Hit |
54% |
Prop pick #1: Jonathan Aranda 2+ hits, runs, RBI
"But bu- lefty on lefty!"
Hush!
I'm all over Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda once again. Last night, Mr. Aranda flew out sharply to deep center field, and the quality contact is bound to find the turf or the bleachers soon.
Aranda owns an .856 xSLG, a 73.3% elevation rate, a 73.3% hard-hit rate, and a 20% barrel rate this postseason. The big fella has only logged a few at-bats against left-handers during the playoffs, so let's zoom out a bit. Over his last 30 regular-season at-bats against left-handed pitchers, Aranda put up a .538 SLG, .230 ISO, 70% elevation rate, and 15% barrel rate.
The slugger draws Guardians left-hander Parker Messick, who has been enduring some issues against left-handed bats this postseason. Messick owns a 6.10 xERA while allowing a 66.7% hard-hit rate, 33.3% barrel rate, and 66.7% elevation rate across 10 matchups. Those hitters have put up a .369 xBA, .931 xSLG, and .394 xwOBA.
Do not pay juice for this prop. Take it down to 50% at the most.
Prop pick #2: Junior Caminero 2+ hits, runs, RBI
Is there a slight worry after last night's collision? Sure, but if he's playing, Tampa Bay Rays star Junior Caminero is one to roll with.
The young superstar boasts the highest rating on Batters-Box, making him the only elite-rated hitter on the day. Caminero also covers more than 84% of Messick's pitch mix. Through 27 elite ratings at home this season, the third baseman has cleared this prop 59.26% of the time and gone yard nearly 26% of the time.
Caminero has also been generating a ton of quality contact, despite not producing a home run this postseason. His RBI single was crushed up the middle at more than 100 mph last night. He's still generating a 50% hard-hit rate and a 10% barrel rate this postseason, too. Tonight should be no different given how well he's been handling southpaws this campaign.
Messick has been allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate during the playoffs, and opposing hitters have posted a .438 expected batting average and a .762 expected slugging percentage.
Take this down to 55%.
Prop pick #3: Patrick Bailey 1+ hit
How could we not be on Cleveland Guardians catcher Patrick Bailey? The guy holds the most consistent bat in this lineup all postseason. Additionally, Bailey owns a .684 SLG, .774 xSLG, and .316 ISO, while generating a 53.3% hard-hit rate and a 20% barrel rate.
The unlikely hero this season owned a putrid .206 batting average and .607 OPS, recording just 10 home runs and 37 RBIs. However, heroes are born when the calendar turns to October.
Bailey draws veteran right-hander Freddy Peralta tonight, and he's been struggling against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a hard-hit rate above 35% and a 62.8% elevation rate. Peralta has faced just 16 left-handed hitters this postseason, but even in that small sample, those hitters own a .552 xSLG while generating a 16.7% barrel rate and a hard-hit rate near 67%.
At 53.7% implied probability to record a hit, this is a great price to pay for a guy who has consistently been reaching base. Take this down to 59%.
Our Neil Parker is backing another sizzling Cleveland hitter in his Guardians vs. Rays prediction.
- Prop picks: 561-1129, +3.80 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
