Two intra-divisional rivals square off in Wrigley Field Friday afternoon for Game 2 of their four-game series. The Chicago Cubs will be looking to rebound from yesterday's 4-3 defeat and falling to 6-7. The Pittsburgh Pirates will be looking to build on that victory and improve their identical 6-7 record.
Who wins this series’ rematch? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Pirates vs. Cubs on Friday, April 22.
Pirates vs Cubs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Opening odds for today's matchup were released late last night. The Cubs opened up as prohibitive -160 favorites — pretty strong by baseball standards. Since then, they have only taken more money, falling as low as -190 in some places.
The total made a 1.5-run adjustment from the first matchup and opened up at 7.5 across the board. It has also stayed at that number virtually everywhere.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Pirates vs Cubs predictions
Picks made on 4/22/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Pirates vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Friday, April 22, 2022
• First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Marquee Sports Network, ATTSN-PIT
Pirates vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.86 ERA): Quintana is an interesting pitcher. He does a good job limiting hard-hit balls. In addition to this, he's also solid in keeping exit velocity low. These are two things you love in a pitcher because they generally keep the ball in the park. He has a career 3.86 ERA, which isn't elite but also isn't anything to shake your head at.
Quintana's problem at the forefront is that he's coming off his worst season as a pro. His ERA, wOBA, and hard-hit ball rates were all career worst. However, he was solid in his first two starts, giving up just four total runs, including one to this same Cubs team. He'll look to keep that going.
Drew Smyly (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Smyly has been electric in his first two starts of this young season. Against this same Pirates team, he got through five innings with zero runs and just three hits. On the season, he's given up no runs through just over nine innings of pitching.
You have to wonder when the regression game is coming for Smyly. Numbers like expected batting average and hard-hit balls are way above where he's been for his career. I'm not sure that's sustainable for much longer.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Pirates: Greg Allen (CF).
Cubs: Andrelton Simmons (SS), David Bote (3B).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 3-0-2 in the Pirates' last five overall. Find more MLB trends for Pirates vs Cubs. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs
Pirates vs Cubs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
I'm betting a number instead of a team in almost every sport, particularly in such a high-variance situation as regular-season baseball. This moneyline price for the Cubs has just gotten a bit out of hand, and while it's not a confident view, I'll be taking the Pirates because of it.
The Pirates should be closer to +135. That's a pretty considerable edge from where they've been bet. Smyly has been incredible to start the year, but as we've noted, he's also pitching at a level far from where he usually does. He currently has one of the best barrel rates of any pitcher in the league. The problem with that is that the previous three seasons, he's had one of the worst barrel rates in the MLB.
The Pirates may not be the best-equipped team in the MLB to pound a pitcher due to a high barrel rate game. But guys like Brian Reynolds, Josh VanMeter, and Daniel Vogenbach have the pop in their bat that can significantly impact what I anticipate to be a low-scoring game. Pittsburgh also has the advantage of seeing Smyly a second time when they were unlucky, going 0-10 with RISP. Regression, regression, and regression are the day's story for me. +160 is just a price that's too much to pass up.
Prediction: Pirates (+160 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Another Pirates game, another Under. In other words, if it's not broken, then don't try to fix it. I'm playing the Under here, and it's a pretty confident view.
I expect Smyly to regress here, but the Pirates are the type of team that will explode with runs on lousy pitching. There's a reason they’ve ranked 20th or below in the MLB in runs per game for four straight seasons. They don't get a ton of extra-base hits. Instead, they win with timely hitting and good pitching. In addition to that, conditions in Wrigley today aren't primed for the longball (something that the Pirates can really hurt you with) with the wind blowing along with cold temperatures.
I like the matchup that Quintana has today. He does an excellent job of inducing hitters into ground-balls, and that's bad news for the Chicago Cubs. Seven of the nine hitters in their lineup today have hit over 50% of the balls they've put into play on the ground so far this season. So, he should have a good outing as long as he can keep Yan Gomes and Patrick Wisdom in check.
Give me the Under here — a number that I think is off by nearly an entire run
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Best bet
My favorite angle of this game is expecting Cubs Pitcher Drew Smyly to have regression back to who he's traditionally been. How about we look for a prop to go along with that angle?
Smyly is giving up about 25% of his batted balls as line drives for his career. That number falls nearly identically in line with the MLB average of 25.5%. Since I'm expecting regression from Smyly, it would only make sense for him to give up a fair number of line drives today. The best line-drive hitter on the Pirates? You guessed it, Roberto Perez. I also like the angle of knowing you'll see all 27 outs from the Pirates as the away team and a batter early in the order.
Give me Roberto Perez to record a hit today. With a price of -125, it looks like the best bet on the board.
Pick: Roberto Perez to record a hit (-125 at FanDuel)
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